Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong shifting winds have left slabs of wind drifted snow and scoured surfaces on most of the exposed near and above treeline terrain. Triggering avalanches involving newly formed and previously existing wind slabs will be possible today. Large avalanches that fail on weak layers deep within the snowpack also remain possible in some areas at all elevations, especially where the snowpack was shallow before the recent storms. MODERATE avalanche danger exists at all elevations today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Fragile slabs of wind drifted snow existed on slopes loaded by the SW winds yesterday, and people triggered numerous wind slab avalanches (see discussion below). The winds shifted to the NE during the night and moved snow to the other side of the ridges. New wind slabs will continue to form today as the winds continue to blow snow around. New and previously formed wind slabs could exist on any aspect today in near and above treeline terrain. Human-triggered wind slab avalanches will be possible.

    Blowing snow, cornices above a slope, wind pillows/drifts, ripples in the snow surface, and other wind created textures can all help identify where wind slabs may exist. Paying attention to the wind can also help determine which slopes will be scoured and firm. Traveling in more sheltered terrain could provide better recreation conditions and help avoid the wind slab problem, but you will still need to assess the potential for the deep persistent slabs mentioned below. 

    Skier triggered wind slab failure on Andesite Peak 2/3/21

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Human triggered deep persistent slab avalanches still remain possible on NW-N-NE aspects at all elevations. These avalanches could fail on deeply buried weak layers within the snowpack resulting in large and destructive avalanches. An avalanche associated with this problem was triggered on Sunday afternoon on Waterhouse Peak in the Luther Pass area. Another potential one was reported yesterday from near Mt. Watson (S of Northstar), but when this avalanche occurred remains unknown. Most of the areas of concern for this deep slab avalanche problem exist on the Eastern side of the forecast region where a weak and shallow snowpack existed before the recent storms. This includes portions of the Carson Range on the NE, E, and SE sides of Lake Tahoe and locations east of the Sierra Crest in the Luther Pass, Carson Pass, and Ebbetts Pass areas.

    Deep slabs represent a very unpredictable and difficult to assess avalanche problem. Sometimes digging deep holes or probing can help determine whether or not the buried weak layer exists, but in many cases triggering a large deep slab avalanche is the first and only sign of instability. Areas that had a shallow and weak snowpack structure before the last major storm are most suspect for this deep slab avalanche problem to occur. Until this avalanche problem goes away, good terrain management skills are critical to reducing exposure. Utilize terrain under 30 degrees in steepness and areas away from steeper connected terrain. Avoid complex terrain with multiple trigger points and unsupported slopes.   

    Bed surface from deep persistent slab avalanche triggered on Sunday Jan 31 on Waterhouse Peak, Luther Pass area.

Avalanche Discussion

* Human-triggered wind slab avalanches were reported on the E face of Jakes Peak (near Emerald Bay). One person was caught and carried without injuries (more information here). More wind slab avalanches occurred on  Mt. Lincoln (south of Sugarbowl), Andesite Peak (Donner Summit), and on Lincoln Ridge (Yuba Pass). Cornices also failed easily in these areas. Wind slabs failed on test slopes on Red Lake Peak (Carson Pass) yesterday as well. Avalanches were also reported from Flagpole and Echo Peaks (Echo Summit area). The wind slabs failed on the soft snow at the base of the firm dense wind slabs

* Blowing snow and continued wind loading was also reported in the Mt Rose backcountry yesterday. 

Snowpit data from Echo Peak, Red Lake Peak, Andesite Peak, and Lincoln Ridge all showed unstable results on the soft snow below the dense wind slabs. The snowpits from Echo Peak and Red Lake Peak and another one near Tam Lake (Blue Lakes area) all showed the Dec 11 facet layer but tests targetting this layer did not yield unstable results.  One of the tests on the pit on Red Lake Peak did fail just below the Jan 22 rain crust

* Evidence of widespread avalanche activity continues to be reported from during the last storm cycle both above and below treeline in both upper and mid-slope start zones on NW-N-NE-E aspects. Many filled in avalanche crowns with wide propagation consistent with persistent slab avalanches continue to be reported. Another potential persistent slab avalanche was reported near Mt. Watson (S of Northstar) yesterday. This avalanche was viewed from a distance so details are sparse. 

Regions covered