Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack (or lack thereof) is generally stable and triggering an avalanche is unlikely today.  Isolated exceptions may exist on high elevation, previously wind loaded terrain.  Consider the terrain consequences if you find an old thicker and harder slab of drifted snow on a steep slope facing north or east.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    In the snow-starved Southeast Mountains, a few pockets of previously drifted slabs exist on the northern half of the compass above treeline.  The problem is both difficult to trigger and rare to find.  You are most likely to encounter a lingering instability on a high elevation slope that faces to the north or east.  That's where previous wind drifting overlaps with early-season weak layers.  Use extra caution in steep, consequential terrain if you find a strong over weak structure.   Cracking or collapsing snow are warning signs of the problem.  

    This avalanche in Redwell Basin ran during a storm on November 11th.  It illustrates our lingering concern for thick, windrifted slabs to fail on weak snow near the ground.  

Avalanche Discussion

Over a week has passed since our last notable loading event and avalanche activity.  Although there are still some terrain features with poor structure, most avalanche-prone slopes are trending towards unreactive given the prolonged dry spell.  Slabs are decaying from faceting, and weak layers are adjusting, making the problem increasingly isolated.  It's a good time to venture into new terrain that is harder to access mid-winter, but that doesn't mean you should let your guard down.  Even a small avalanche this time of year can push you into rocks and ruin your day, or worse.  Be cautious around anomalously fat drifts where the snowpack feels or looks noticeably deeper than its surroundings, especially in consequential terrain.   Lingering slabs are more common and larger in the Northwest Mountains, where seasonal snow depths are greater.  

Although a few inches of new snow today won't change the avalanche hazard, flat light and fresh snow could make it harder to identify previous wind drifting patterns.  If you are traveling in an area that receives more than about 5" of new snow today, expect increasing hazard and small, soft slabs forming near drifted ridgelines and in gullies.  They'll be easy to trigger because the new snow is falling on a weak snow surface.  

 

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