Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The exceptionally dry start to 2021 and the overall well below-average winter, has left the snowpack generally stable. Human triggering a slab avalanche has become unlikely, but not impossible, due to the stubborn and isolated characteristics of the current avalanche problem. You must stay alert for those isolated areas and not become complacent. The most suspect terrain would primarily be found on the lee sides of cross-loaded terrain features, or below ridgelines, where previous winds have left hard slabs over weak snow. A skier found just the right location on Monday, and triggered a small slab avalanche into a higher consequence terrain feature. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The odds of triggering a persistent slab continue to decrease under our current snow drought.  On steep terrain features with previous windloading, you may be able to trigger persistent slabs up to several feet thick that fail on weak snow near the ground. Even below treeline, shallow pockets of hard slab exist in a few leeward terrain features.   Persistent slabs often surprise even the most experienced travelers because they give infrequent or irregular feedback.  To avoid this problem,  choose routes that stay off of steep terrain holding dense slabs over sugary weak layers.   You can read the snow texture and avoid terrain where the snowpack looks or feels deeper, denser, and more windloaded to help you avoid the problem.  The most concerning slopes are on northeast, east, and high southeast facing terrain.  You may be able to find isolated exceptions to the distribution rose on cross-loaded terrain features on other shady aspects.  Riding on steep terrain where the snowpack is softer and faceted throughout is the safest option.

    1.18 Small skier triggered hard slab on a cross loaded terrain feature. This avalanche ran into a higher consequence terrain trap formed by the Slate River below.

Avalanche Discussion

For the month of January, Irwin may be the only location that is hitting around 10" of accumulated snow. Otherwise, we are talking single digit snow accumulations for the last 20 to 22 days. Back in December we saw a steadily climbing snowpack and spent much of that month at CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger.  During the start of January, we were riding MODERATE avalanche danger, then early last week the forecast team began discussing whether the dry January was eroding the Persistent Slab Avalanche Problem and if we were approaching LOW Danger. An extreme NW wind event that started around this time last weak, created some uncertainty for a few days before we eventually arrived at a LOW danger rating last Sunday.

Our snowpack is a mix of generally very week snow and some hard slabs. The weak snow can lead to some facet sluffing in steep terrain. While those hard slabs are difficult to human trigger and isolated in the big picture. As last week's wind event contributed to more erosion, vs loading. Since the wind event, all the observed slab avalanches have actually been reported at below treeline elevations. Such as this skier triggered avalanche from just a couple of days ago. Somewhere between, no, to very few, avalanches are expected between now and the next significant storm. Normal caution travel advice looks like the continued future until that next storm. 

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