Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Continued snowfall and transportable wind speeds in the alpine will keep heightened avalanche conditions at higher elevations.  A close call with a large avalanche in Peeler Basin yesterday highlights both of today's avalanche problems:  A fresh wind slab stepped down and triggered a larger persistent slab.   Evaluate the snowpack and terrain consequences carefully before riding in avalanche terrain.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The past week has brought a steady string of near misses and unintentionally triggered soft slab avalanches that released on buried weak layers one to two feet deep (Sunday 1, Sunday 2,  Thursday, Wednesday), along with several naturals (Example A, Example B).  You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, shaded terrain with variable or thin snowpack depths. Most of the recent avalanches are repeating in paths that ran back in February because previous avalanches have left a shallower and weaker snowpack structure.  Be cautious of slopes that look like they have a below-average snowpack (evidenced by more rocks or small trees), or if you see faint old crown lines.  You can reliably avoid the problem on sunny aspects where the snowpack has a stronger spring-like structure.

    3/18: A skier was caught by surprise by this persistent slab on Mt. Axtell.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    There has been just enough wind on exposed, alpine terrain to drift the fresh snow.  Several wind slabs were triggered yesterday on above treeline slopes.  Winds were out of the southwest yesterday, and are switching to the north today, so look for the problem on a variety of aspects at higher elevations.  You can trigger these shallow, soft slabs in steep, windloaded terrain such as below cornices, in crossloaded gullies, or convex rollovers.   Look and feel for lenses of deeper snow to identify the problem.  

    3/21: A thin wind slab triggered below a corniced ridgeline.

Avalanche Discussion

Two-day storm totals range from about a foot near Schofield Pass (1.0" SWE) to 6" across the rest of the forecast area (~.3" SWE).  We should see a few more inches of snow this morning.  Alpine winds are just strong enough to continue transporting snow, blowing 15 to 20, gusting to 30 out of the north.  Incremental loading and wind transport keep the threat of human-triggered avalanches going today.   Most avalanche activity in the past week has been relatively shallow or small, with the exception of a few noteworthy large (D2) persistent slabs that broke across larger high elevation start zones: Cement, Peeler, and Axtell.  These persistent slab avalanches all released in the same paths that ran as very large avalanches back in February.  Avalanche activity in February left many paths with a shallow and weak snowpack, and we are gradually seeing these paths start to rebuild slabs on top of the weak snow, from both snow and windloading.  There is still a lot of terrain where these ingredients aren't in place, and until we see a dramatic loading event, we will continue to see just a few avalanches breaking on these layers - an isolated problem for now.  A tricky piece to this situation, both for our forecast staff and for recreators, is that you can't get feedback from this problem until you are on an avalanche slope.  Low angle terrain has a deeper, stronger snowpack structure.  Because of this, our forecast uncertainty is higher.  The problem is confined to shadier aspects. The recent warm-ups have caused meltwater to drain deep into the snowpack on sunny aspects, making for a stronger, spring-like snowpack now that the meltwater is refreezing.

The wind slab problem today is an easier problem to identify and avoid.  Pay attention to where the new snow feels thicker or denser in wind exposed terrain and steer around those drifts.  Most wind slabs today will be small.  In the snowfall favored terrain near Paradise Divide and Schofield Pass, the potential for larger wind slabs exist.   If the light is flat making it hard to distinguish loading patterns, or the terrain consequences are high, it is best to steer away from potentially drifted areas.

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