Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Fresh snow, a strong March sun, and above freezing temps will lead to rising avalanche danger throughout the day. Wet loose avalanches will become likely to human trigger and will also release naturally. This morning you could find some great riding on sunny facing slopes, then as snow surfaces heat up, consider heading to colder northerly facing slopes. Slab avalanches releasing deeply in the snowpack remain a low probability but high consequence avalanche problem. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    1 to 4" of snow accumulated yesterday, and potentially a few inches more in the alpine. As the strong March sun makes its rounds, wet loose avalanches will become problematic. Beginning with east-facing slopes in the morning, moving onto south, and eventually west-facing slopes this afternoon. Keep an eye on snow surfaces, once the new snow has become wet you will be able to human trigger this avalanche problem on steep slopes. Natural avalanche activity is also expected throughout the day and these will be another clear sign for you to head to lower angled or colder slopes. On Thursday, a skier was pushed off their feet by a small loose wet avalanche. A small avalanche could easily push you into more hazardous terrain or become large in size as they accumulate mass running down big terrain. 

    At upper elevations, this wet avalanche problem could have some initial wider propagation on wind-loaded terrain features. 

    Wet loose avalanches typically start from a point and grow in size as they descend through the terrain.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Hard slab avalanches breaking 2 to 6 feet deep on old weak snow are creating a low probability but high consequence situation. A triggered avalanche on a high elevation, leeward slope, could be deep and unsurvivable. While in wind-sheltered or windward terrain, the slabs are still sizable and would be large enough to bury you. If you choose to ride in avalanche terrain you may be able to reduce your chance of human triggering by seeking out planar or concave slopes with deep, uniform snow coverage, free of shallow spots, rock bands, and variability from winds. Regroup in safe zones that are clear of unusually wide and long-running avalanches.  

    Most of the avalanches this month have released on weak layers near the ground. The slabs are thick and can propagate surprisingly wide distances across terrain features that might normally feel safe.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's storm delivered a quick blast of new snow and has now moved on. In the Northwest Mountains storm totals look to average in the 3 to 6" range. While the SE Mountains saw storm totals in the 1 to 4" range. Both areas could have deeper storm totals near and above 12,000ft. This new snow is mostly just adding fule for loose wet avalanches on the southern half of the compass, and loose dry avalanches on the northern half of the compass. Of other particular note, westerly and northerly winds in the last 12 hours have been strong enough to build small wind slabs at upper elevations. Cinnamon Weather Station at 12,000ft recorded the strongest gust overnight. 50mph at midnight from the north. Winds have since tapered this morning and will be calm today. 

The weight of this new snow has had little effect on the persistent slab avalanche problem. This avalanche problem has now dropped to unlikely and the problem rose was adjusted to highlight those aspects. The messaging for this avalanche problem will stay the same, low likelihood/high consequence. We have probably been at unlikely for a couple of days now, but we needed to see how this avalanche problem would handle Wednesday's heat, and just how much snow we would receive from Thursday's storm. 

Wet avalanche activity is expected to drive the avalanche danger rating into the weekend. Many sunny slopes are expected to shed today. High temperatures on Saturday will increase a few degrees and some slopes that don't shed today will shed tomorrow. Consider planning early starts for your backcountry riding this weekend.

Regions covered