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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2012–Dec 14th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Flurries are expected till tomorrow am with SW-NW moderate winds. Sunny periods and broken clouds are still expected for Friday, seasonal temperatures throughout the period (-8 C) and light winds from the North West.  The upper trough arriving on Saturday should bring light precipitations on the regions. Winds should pick up to reach moderate to strong speeds from the South West. Another system is following for Sunday, its timing and intensity remains to see.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanches were reported. In the North part of the region,  multiple small slab avalanches released from explosives in the new snow on Northerly aspects. In the South part of the region, 1 small slab avalanche was released by a skier which ran on a North aspect on the facet crust combo buried in early November. This layer also produced multiple small slab avalanches by explosives on the same aspect above 1950 meters.

Snowpack Summary

Watch for new and old isolated windslabs in the alpine and at treeline on Easterly aspects and on cross loaded features. The main concerns are still the 2 persistent weak layers (early November crust down 60-100cm and Late November surface hoar down 40cm).  Be aware that triggering an avalanche in a touchier windslabs area could step down to the deeper more stubborn problems. The crust-facet combo seems to be more reactive in the South part of the region. The surface hoar layer seems to be reactive mostly in the North part of the region still producing the odd sudden collapses result on North and North West facing slopes. 

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.