Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Tuesday morning and it looks like the latest storm came in warm again! Expect to see loose wet slides below 6,000' today. Above the rain line watch out for wind slabs on leeward aspects and storm slabs to build through the day on Tuesday afternoon. Conditions should calm down as the temperature drops Tuesday night. Wind slabs at Treeline and above are your primary threat today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With a steady south to southwest wind dominating the area you will likely find windslabs  building on north-westerly aspects above 5,500' today. Watch for cracking in locations below ridgelines and cornices. Cross-loaded gullies will also be suspect today at upper elevations where the wind is blowing the fresh snow across the slope and loading it into low spots in higher terrain. Wind-slabs will be your main threat out there today, keep them in the front of your mind before you drop off any ridgeline or descend a steep gully at upper elevations.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    It's a little gross out there this morning. With rain on snow at lower elevations we can expect the loose surface snow that is resting on our old crust layer to start flowing down the hill. Mostly benign little slides; but, as always pay attention to the terrain below when dealing with this problem. If you get caught the potential to get slammed into rocks or trees is always there in Northwest Montana.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Here's the wild card today. My crystal ball is a little dark and murky at the moment; but, here's what I think will happen today. Heavy, dense snow will continue to fall on Tuesday and build a relatively thin and cohesive slab at upper elevations. This slab will be resting on a variety of surface including the January 13 rain/wind crust, low density snow, and in many locations we have surface hoar 3-4" below the existing surface. I anticipate that by Tuesday afternoon we will have enough cohesive storm snow to cause concern above 5,500'.

Avalanche Discussion

Well, yesterdays' conditions were interesting to say the least. As I climbed out of the drainage the temperature warmed up a good 10 degrees and made travel difficult to say the least. The top inch of the snow stuck tenaciously to my skis and created one hell of a workout. Other than that, the most notable observation was the strong south to southwest winds transporting snow at ridgeline and building windslabs. With warm temperatures out there today I think avalanche conditions will be a little sensitive  until it cools down. I would give steep terrain some respect today and monitor the surface conditions closely as the storm slabs build. Most of the avalanche problems right now are close to the surface and easy to mitigate if you keep a strong awareness of your environment.

If you plan to ride in the Purcell Range I would definetly keep an eye on the building storm snow conditions. We have a pretty weak structure close to the surface of the existing snowpack in that area. Once we add a cohesive layer of storm snow to this recipe we will have a multi-layer cake that will be capable of producing avalanches.

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