Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Recently drifted snow may be reactive to a human trigger especially at mid and upper elevations. Areas of soft drifted snow, if any, are likely to be limited in size and location. The greatest chance of finding reactive snow will be on steep slopes in east facing ravines. A widespread refrozen breakable crust 2cm thick or more will make travel challenging everywhere. A long sliding fall hazard will be found on any steep surface where freezing rain capped a hard wind-packed snow surface, and may be more of a hazard than an avalanche. Crampons, hard boots and an ice axe are essential tools today. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully. Avalanche danger is MODERATE.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday’s storm produced a trace of snow early, freezing rain for several hours then snow showers again at the tail end of the storm. With freezing rain capping any early snow, and 100mph winds drifting and wind packing the afternoon snow, wind slabs created from the new snow are likely to be isolated and stubborn. Smaller and more reactive slabs may be tucked into more wind sheltered locations in the terrain and on steep, narrow drainages at mid elevations. Keep in mind even a small wind slab, may be resting on an icy surface creating the start of a long sling fall.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Continuously cold temperatures and crusts have driven a faceting problem in areas of thinner snowpack. So far only small avalanches (D1) have occurred on this weak layer. Natural avalanche activity has occurred at lower elevations over a week ago with reports of whumpfing and collapsing continuing in lower and middle locations with a thinner snowpack. Faceted snow has been observed more locally beneath the hard 157mph crust within our forecast area at 4200’ but is likely to be deeply buried in wind loaded terrain where it is more likely to be bridged over by stiff slabs above.

    You can also find faceted snow around the Christmas rain crust, though that layer is much more deeply buried at mid and upper elevations. This problem was identified near the ground at lower & mid elevations with a thinner snowpack. Snowfall or a skier/climber could overload these weak layers, initiating an avalanche in the right conditions. Look and listen for collapsing and whumpfing.

Avalanche Discussion

Traveling on the mountain today will be challenging due to a breakable crust and refrozen surface found in most places. Temperatures warmed to above freezing at ravine elevations before nose-diving to around 0F this morning.  The Hermit Lake Caretaker this morning reported a 2-3 cm breakable crust and hard refrozen snow, conditions in the ravines are likely similar.  With clearing skies today, hopefully field time will reveal the outcome of the wintry mess yesterday.

 

A complete incident analysis and report of the fatal avalanche accident that occured in the Ammonoosuc Ravine on February 1 is available here. There are learning opportunities in the stories of accident reports from our database as well as from across the country. Taking the time to read and honestly reflect on your own behavior in the backcountry is worthwhile.

Information on all US avalanche fatalities can be found here with details and accident reports appearing as they are submitted to the CAIC. Two more fatalities occurred over the weekend in Colorado including one involving a very large, skier-triggered wind slab. The skier was wearing a deployed airbag, was buried shallowly and skiing alone.

An interview with Simon Trautman of the National Avalanche Center on the recent cluster of fatal avalanche accidents can be found here. 

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

Thursday, February 18 @ 7PM - Avalanche Awareness talk with Pat Scanlan: Stealing from the Ski Guides Toolbox - A Free Zoom Webinar

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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