Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A low pressure system brings significant amounts of precipitation including snow, freezing rain and rain. Avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE today for wind drifted snow capable of producing small avalanches. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche from the new snow will increase when rain falls on the new snow later in the day.

Expect the threat from objective mountain hazards to increase due to several hours of heavy rain. Increased streamflow from rain and melting snow will undermine snow, weakening or removing snow bridges over steam beds. Targets for this include the waterfall in the Lip area and the stream through the Little Headwall. Glide cracks and waterfall holes are large enough to fall into. 

The Little Headwall has melted back to a waterfall. The safest way down from Tuckerman Ravine is hiking down the Tuckerman Ravine Trail to Hermit Lake. 

The lower half of Sherburne ski trail is now CLOSED at the rope across the trail at crossover 5. Please help prevent erosion by removing your skis and walking down the Tucks trail from there.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    This avalanche problem does not exist this morning, and will develop though the day as snow falls. The size of new slabs depends on snow totals, with the Moderate hazard rating for today based on the 1-3 inches of new snow scenario. 

    Moderate southwest & south winds combined with a few inches of wet heavy snow are not the ideal combination to build large wind slabs in our terrain. Even small wind slabs will be dense and heavy, and will be more destructive than expected. Also keep in mind that the significant amount of rain expected in the afternoon will likely change the nature of new wind slabs to more of a wet-snow avalanche type. Wet slabs and wet-loose avalanches are all within the realm of possibilities today. 

Avalanche Discussion

Some uncertainty exists for precipitation types and timing, but the forecast models are in agreement for QPF. Almost 2 inches of water is forecast to fall before the system wraps up tomorrow morning. This past week, the snowpack was subjected to several days of warm temperatures including one-half inch of rain on Friday with limited avalanche activity as a result. The snowpack is likely settled and resistant to rain producing large wet-slab avalanche activity in most locations except for the Lip area of Tuckerman Ravine. The Lip waterfall has a history of creating large wet snow avalanches in the past during heavy rain events and should be avoided for the next 24 hours or until the snowpack drains.

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Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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