Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Avalanche conditions are generally safe. It would take a dose of bad luck, but there's a remote chance of triggering a large slide on a very steep, rocky, wind-affected slope. As the day warms up, small wet snow avalanches are possible on very steep slopes that face the sun.

There are no obvious, widespread avalanche problems in this zone, and triggering a large avalanche is unlikely. Unlikely is not the same as impossible—avalanches can be triggered at LOW danger. Keep these problems in mind as you plan your day:

• "Rogue" Wind Slabs. If your adventures take you into alpine terrain, it may be possible to trigger a wind slab—especially where these have formed on icy surfaces or sugary snow. These are likely to be small but could be dangerous in consequential terrain.
• Weak Snow Near the Ground.  Weak faceted snow exists near the ground on shaded NW-N-NE-E facing slopes at middle and upper elevations. This layer exists in some locations above about 8,000' in the Wood River Valley but is more prevalent near Dollarhide Summit and in the Soldiers. It would take a dose of bad luck to trigger an avalanche on this layer, but local professionals and savvy backcountry riders are still leery of "prime-time" slopes (around 35-45 degrees) that are wind-affected and rocky. Read more below.
• Wet Loose Avalanches. With warm temps and sunshine today, small wet loose avalanches (photo) may become possible on very steep, rocky slopes that are getting hit by the sun.

HOW DO WE KNOW WHEN A WEAK LAYER HAS HEALED?We don't. At least not exactly.

If you're not satisfied with the short answer, then buckle up. While there are sure ways to tell if a persistent weak layer is unstable (avalanches, cracking/collapsing, etc), definitive clues do not exist to tell us when a layer has stabilized. When assessing a "proven" weak layer, the best we have is a list of indicators that point to a decreasing likelihood of triggering: 

1. No obvious signs of instability. If we're seeing recent avalanches on a layer, or folks still report collapsing, cracking, or poor snowpack test scores—go no further! But the last avalanches on our October weak layer occurred during the past storm, and it's been over a week since the last report of instability. Check.
2. Time without loading. We like to see at least a week without significant loading due to new snow or wind. Our last significant loading event was just over a week ago. Check
3. Deeply-buried weak layer. The more deeply buried a weak layer, the harder it is to trigger. In the Sawtooth & Western Smoky and Banner Summit zones, our weak layer is buried around 6' deep - Check. But in our other zones, it's still at a depth where our weight can impact it - Uncheck.
4. Physical signs of change. The best way to heal a weak layer is to compact it beneath a heavy, thick slab of snow. In our northern zones where the snowpack is deeper, we're starting to see the weak layer "squish" - Check. However, in our other zones, the weak layer still looks as weak and sugary as ever - Uncheck.
5. Periods of temps near freezing. Temps near freezing can add stress to buried weak layers. It's preferable to have a weak layer that's been "tested" by a few days of warm temps. Check.
6. Improving snowpack test scores. Tests are great at telling us when things are unstable, but not so good at predicting stability. Also, when weak layers are beneath a dense, hard slab more than 3' thick, tests just work less well in general. Inconclusive.

The Sawtooth & Western Smoky and Banner Summit zones pass most of these points. The Soldier & Wood River Valley zone missed a few, but the weak layer is less widespread in this zone—although the area around Dollarhide towards the Soldier remains a concern. The Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns also missed a few checks, and the weak layer is more common—hence the danger there has been slower to drop.

Be sure to check out Ethan's latest Weekend Update!