Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Danger from wet avalanches will increase with sunny skies and freezing levels to 11,000'. Move off of and away from steep terrain when the snow surface becomes saturated and unsupportable. Be wary of cornices and other overhead hazards more likely to fall down with rapid warming.

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Danger from a variety of wet avalanche problems will be in play on Saturday including loose wet avalanches, glide avalanches, and falling cornices. The highest freezing levels of the season plus solar warming will increase avalanche danger as the day grows warmer.

    Avoid traveling below sagging cornices, glide cracks, and large, unsupported blocks of snow clinging to rock faces. Though the danger will be highest on sun-warmed slopes at midday, be aware these avalanches can still release at any time.

    You are most likely to see larger loose wet avalanches above treeline where dry new snow will be more susceptible to warming. Smaller but still dangerous loose wet avalanches could be triggered in steep terrain where you are skinking past your ankles in wet snow. Move to lower angle terrain and away from steep slopes  when you see signs of instability like rollerballs, a rapidly warming snow surface, or current avalanche activity. 

    (1/19/2022)

    Pockets of unsupported snow exist in steep, rocky areas. Watch out for these breaking loose and coming down with warm temperatures Saturday. 

    Photo: Lee Lazzara

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    New snow and moderate to strong winds likely created new wind slabs at the highest elevations. Though small they still pose a risk to backcountry travelers in steep, exposed terrain. They could also become easier to trigger during periods of warming. Monitor new snow depth and the extent of wind transport as you ascend. Use visual cues like scoured snow surfaces and cornices to figure out where unstable winds slabs could be hiding. Identify and avoid steep features like convex rolls and other unsupported terrain with signs of recent wind loading. 

    (1/21/2022) Small wind drifts were found at 5000' from the few inches of snow on January 20th. Expect to see deeper drifts at 6000' and above.

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

The coming weekend will bring a combination of the strongest sun and warmest temperatures we have seen yet this year.  On the other hand, we have a very strong rain and melt affected snowpack that has been through wet avalanche cycles plus nearly two weeks of melting, draining, and freezing. This should soften the blow of rapid warming and make for generally lower avalanche danger compared to similar weather with a colder, drier snowpack.

The outlier to this are areas that saw significant new snow on Thursday such as Stevens Pass, the southern West Central along the Hwy 2 corridor, and areas in West North closer to the Cascade Crest. The latter likely experienced lower snow levels accompanying heavy precipitation. The new snow will be more reactive to warm temperatures with loose and slab avalanches larger and more likely.

Other than avalanche hazards, expect challenging travel conditions on frozen, uneven surfaces earlier in the day. Steep tree covered terrain has been noted as particularly difficult to navigate. If you haven’t made it to the mountains since the rain and warm temperature regime took over 10 days ago be prepared to see a very different environment. Exposed rock, glide cracks, open creeks and a very rough snow surface all present new hazards to avoid.

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