Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large avalanche in very steep, rocky, wind-affected terrain remains a possibility. You can greatly reduce your risk by steering clear of slopes with these terrain characteristics. Continue to follow safe travel protocols, even as the Avalanche Danger decreases—carry your rescue gear, travel one at a time in avalanche terrain, and keep your eyes on your partners. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    This zone sits in the "sweet spot" for hosting a lingering persistent slab avalanche problem. Here, the weak layer of snow near the ground is well-developed and exists in many locations. The slab overlying this weak layer is thinner than in the zones to the north and west, which makes it easier for you to trigger. In addition, the thin snowpack creates strong temperature gradients that don't allow for the weak snow to heal quickly. For these reasons, triggering an avalanche that fails on this weak snow remains a possibility today. Watch the video at right/above for a little more detail about this situation.

    The weak snow responsible for this problem exists on shaded middle elevation slopes and most slopes at upper elevations. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche that fails on this snow in very steep, rocky, wind-affected terrain (see photo here). Here, the overlying slab is variably thick which makes it easier for your weight to impact the weak snow underneath. Any slide you trigger involving this weak snow is likely to be large and destructive.

Avalanche Discussion

Dealing with extended periods of MODERATE danger is hard. It is challenging both as a forecaster and as a backcountry traveler. We know that with each passing day without loading the likelihood of triggering a slide is ever so slightly decreasing. So, today your odds are a tiny bit better than yesterday. However, your likelihood of surviving one of these slides is not improving. These types of problems are hard to wrap our heads around. We can look at a beautiful, steep powder slope, and know that we are more likely to ski or ride it without triggering an avalanche than we are to trigger one. But we also have to remember if we choose to enter that terrain that we are making that gamble. A gamble where the stakes of ending up on the wrong side of the coin are likely to be fatal. We take risks all of the time, in daily life and in the backcountry. Don't forget to be honest with yourself about the risks you are taking.

If you are choosing to enter avalanche terrain in this zone there are a few other problems to be aware of in addition to the persistent slab problem described above. Be on the lookout for the additional problems described below and think about the potential consequences of encountering them in the terrain you are in:

  • Wind Slabs: thin, isolated wind slabs exist in upper elevation terrain. These slabs are generally well-bonded to the surfaces that they are resting on and are mostly just decreasing the skiing/riding quality where they exist. However, if you find one sitting on a layer of icy snow with facets you may still be able to trigger it.
  • Cornices: Cornices have grown to impressive sizes already this year, which is unusual for January. In my recent travels in the mountains, I've seen lots of giant cornices that are yawning off the steep terrain that they are attached to. In many places, large cracks and crevasses exist between the ridgeline and the cornice itself. Even just falling into one of these could have some nasty consequences. Large cornice failures can be very effective triggers for the deeply-buried weak snow described above.
  • Wet Loose Slides: Today will be cooler than yesterday, but if you are playing in very steep, rocky terrain that directly faces the sun during the heat of the day you might be able to push some of this wet surface snow into a small slide. 

I issued a challenge for you yesterday, and was pleased to get at least one response! I think I'll keep it going today, here is your Tuesday challenge: the weather over the past 10 days has been great for building surface hoar. I've skinned and rode through many fields of surface hoar of all varieties. Of course, not all surface hoar is created equally. You can find thin needles of surface hoar (acicular growth form) and flat plates of surface hoar (tabular growth form). You can find surface hoar that grows on top of other crystals of surface hoar and surface hoar that is standing up or falling over. Wow, who knew there was so much to know about surface hoar!? Today, when you are out in the backcountry and you find some surface hoar, take a minute or two to have a closer look at the crystals. Try to describe what you are seeing. Send a photo or two my way ([email protected]), along with your brief description of what you saw, and get ready for another mind-blowing prize in return! (Forecaster's note: today, there is also no prize, but I can guarantee you an excited email in response)

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