Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Watch for increasing avalanche danger today as a warm storm system will bring upper elevation snowfall with strong westerly winds. The concern, two buried persistent weak layers that are capable of producing large, dangerous, and unsurvivable avalanches. Avalanches that fail on these layers could propagate wide distances and take the entire snowpack with it. Due to the uncertainty and high consequences we recommend staying out of terrain greater than 30 degrees today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    24 to 36+ inch slabs rest over two buried weak layers of concern. The first layer you'll encounter is a layer of 1mm Near-Surface Facets buried 60-70cm from the surface. The second layer is 2-3mm large-grained facets buried 80-100cm down. This layer has been the more reactive and concerning in our long column tests. Due to the depth and length of time since our last loading event, it's becoming increasingly difficult to trigger an avalanche on this layer. However, when or if you are able to, our long column tests have illustrated a frightening ability to propagate still, with our slabs collapsing and shooting off the column with little resistance. 

    The most likely areas to trigger these avalanches are on northwest through east aspects near and above treeline in areas where the slabs are thinner and you are more likely to impact these buried weak layers. These are also the most likely areas to trigger avalanches approaching D3 in destructive size. West and southeast aspects should be given respect as well but an overall shallower snowpack (meaning smaller avalanches) and recent strong solar events have aided in decreasing the likelihood. 

    Pay attention to signs of instability such as shooting cracks and audible collapses. Stay out of terrain steeper than 30 degrees 

     

     

     

    Faceted weak layers between harder slabs deeper down in the snowpack with last week's storm slabs on top.

Avalanche Discussion

An upper-level trough with well-above-average temperatures will bring mid to upper elevation snowfall to the Sangre de Cristo's today into tomorrow. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding not only snow totals, but how low in elevation those accumulations will impact. 2 to 3 inches of new snow with strong westerly winds can be expected today. Additional accumulation could be possible from orographic enhancement. Due to the uncertainty, we're bumping above treeline terrain to "Considerable" today in anticipation of a new load. 

Be on the lookout for changing conditions today if you're getting out - new snow at mid to upper elevations, strong winds, and rain on our lower elevation snowpack are all things to be mindful of. The concern with rain on snow for our below treeline snowpack would be getting water percolating down to our buried facets. This destroys the bonds between snow grains and would result in a pretty grumpy layer. It's an unlikely scenario today but if you're out touring and it starts raining and/or snowing heavily it's probably best to wait for the storm to play out and temperatures to cool on Thursday. In general, we expect new snow to bond fairly well to the surface as warm temperatures and strong solar have added some moisture to the top 10cms so we don't anticipate an issue within the new snow today. The concern is for modest snow accumulations and/or wind drifting to add weight and stress on our buried persistent weak layers increasing the likelihood of a human-triggered avalanche. 

Keep an eye out for signs of unstable snow such as shooting cracks and audible collapses. I would recommend dialing back your terrain choices today to slopes no greater than 30 degrees as this storm is bringing not only uncertainty but some unusual conditions for February. 

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