Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Human-triggered persistent slab avalanches are possible today at all elevations. 2 to 4-foot slabs from the recent storm snow continue to stress the faceted persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Don't get lured into chasing powder in steep terrain. Any avalanche triggered has the potential to be large and dangerous.  Pay attention to loud audible collapses and shooting cracks as these are indications of unstable snow.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    2 to 4-foot slabs from the recent storm snow rest on top of weak faceted snow deeper down in the snowpack.  Below treeline, these slabs rest on top of an entirely faceted snowpack to the ground.  Near and above treeline faceted snow is sandwiched between hard slabs that formed from prior wind events. As we've seen with recent natural activity over the last week, these avalanches can propagate wide and step down to faceted weak layers just above the ground.  We are living in the world of a lower likelihood of triggering an avalanche but the consequences remain high.  

     Obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks may not be the first sign of instability, especially where the weak layer is deep. It may not be the first person on the slope to trigger an avalanche, but may just take hitting the "sweet spot" where the slab is thinner and you can impact the weak layer. Always think of the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche.  Avoid being on or beneath slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

    Large natural avalanche from earlier in the week that failed on facets beneath a hard slab. Recent snow and winds have built 2 - 4 foot slabs that continue to stress these deeper weak layers

Avalanche Discussion

It's been an active week here in northern New Mexico with close to 3 feet of snow and 2.5" of snow water equivalent (SWE) that have created slabs over the shallow weak faceted snowpack that existed prior to these latest rounds of storms.  We finally hit a tipping point on many slopes Tuesday with natural avalanches at all elevations. Moderate to strong SW winds picked up continuing to load slopes and stiffening slabs, especially North through East aspects near and above treeline.   Yesterday's 4 to 6 inches of snow with another .5" of water came in with little wind and the low-density snow now rests on top of stiffer slabs near and above treeline from the recent winds.   

We've dropped the avalanche danger down to Moderate at all elevations today which doesn't mean it's a green light to get on any steep slope. Avalanche activity has slowly tapered off in the last couple of days, but still remain possible.  We are going to be living in a world of lower likelihood to trigger an avalanche but incredibly high consequences if you do.  Over the last week, we've had persistent slab avalanches run full depth on facets near the ground at all elevations. Some of these avalanches were large and unsurvivable.  A persistent slab avalanche yesterday in steep terrain below treeline failed near the ground and put an impressive debris pile in a terrain trap that would've easily buried or injured a person. 

Whether you're below or above treeline, the persistent slab problem remains the same as weak faceted snow is still adjusting to the added weight that has nearly doubled the snowpack.  The only way to identify if the slope you're planning on skiing or riding has this poor snowpack structure is to take the time to dig down into the snow. Remember the faceted weak layers are deeper down in the snowpack and travel on boards right now feels good underfoot.  The faceted layers should be fairly easy to spot as they have a different tinge of color compared to the newer slabs on top.        

With warm temperatures and sun today we may see loose snow avalanches in steep terrain on solar aspects.  These avalanches won't be big on their own but could be enough weight to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   

It's not all bad news, with another active weather week and potentially deepening snowpack, the weak facets that have plagued us this season should start to heal and gain strength. As with everything right now, it's just going to take time. If you are getting out continue to stay vigilant and not let your guard down in the search of powder.  Continue to practice good travel techniques, giving big avalanche paths wide berths and always thinking about the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche.  Even a small avalanche can have serious implications if it sweeps you over a cliff or into a terrain trap.  Sticking to low angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you is a great way to stay safe and enjoy the powder.  

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