Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist as new wind-driven snow has built cohesive slabs on the surface. Human triggered wind slab or persistent slab avalanches are likely on steep slopes where you find more than 8 inches of wind drifted snow.  Pay attention to obvious clues like audible collapses and shooting cracks on the surface. Any avalanche triggered today has the potential to be large enough to injure or bury a person.  Avoid traveling on or beneath slopes steeper than 35 degrees today as you may be able to trigger an avalanche from below. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind-driven new snow is building stiffening cohesive slabs on the surface over several faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack.  The most likely weak layer to trigger a persistent slab avalanche is on buried near-surface facets either just below last Tuesday's storm snow or beneath a hard wind crust from last week's wind events. A persistent slab avalanche that initially fails in this weak layer has a chance to step down into deeper faceted weak layers creating a larger unsurvivable avalanche.

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks. You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche from long distances today. Stay off of or underneath slopes that are greater than 35 degrees. 

    Slabs are starting to build and stiffen on the surface over faceted weak layers deeper in the snowpack.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    SW winds in the 20's gusting in the 40 mph range have easily transported recent snow into stiffening wind slabs near and above treeline.  We were finding these slabs to be upwards of 1 foot thick especially below the leeward sides of ridgelines and on cross-loaded terrain features. These wind slabs formed on a variety of different surfaces from near-surface facets, decomposing snow from Tuesday's storm, and hard crusts. Avoid steep slopes where you find more than 8 inches of newly wind drifted snow.

    Look for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface and wind drifted pillows.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has a possibility of stepping down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

    Wind loaded slope near treeline on an E aspect that collapsed with shooting cracks when we approached the slope on 1/24.

Avalanche Discussion

It's day 2 of a four-day weather event and we'll have a brief lull this morning before snow, wind and maybe some thunder come back in later this afternoon through the evening.  Winds and new snow yesterday were easily loading slopes and building stiffening cohesive slabs.  It was another storm where snow totals varied greatly on elevation, with only 3 to 5 inches below11,000' and a considerable more amount of snow above.  The big story yesterday was the moderate to strong winds easily transporting the new snow into stiffening slabs on the surface.  

It's starting to become a complex and challenging snowpack at all elevations. The often forgotten about below treeline zone this year is starting to build enough of a cohesive slab to be concerned about as it rests on top of a very weak faceted snowpack. We've included this terrain with the persistent slab problem as any avalanche triggered at these elevations will most likely fail deeper down in the snowpack on weak faceted snow. 

The major weak layer of concern is fragile buried near-surface facets that formed during the three weeks of high-pressure at the beginning of January. These facets were either on the surface or buried just below a small hard crust (near and above treeline) that formed prior to last Tuesday's storm.  Saturday's storm has drifted snow into cohesive slabs upwards of 1 to 2 feet thick in spots that now rests on top of this concerning weak layer.  In stability tests leading up this storm, we were getting a faceted weak layer deeper in the snowpack beneath another hard slab that formed from a wind event before Christmas to fail on isolation or with easy force.  These deeper harder slabs may be able to better support the weight of the new snow, but might not be able to support the added weight of a human, especially if you hit the "sweet spot" where the slab may be thinner. It's a scary snowpack right now and early indications after the first loading event is that the persistent weak layers we have will continue to struggle with additional loading.      

In travels yesterday, loud thundering collapses and shooting cracks upwards of 200' was widespread especially near and above treeline.  We also remotely triggered several avalanches failing in faceted weak layers on small steep test slopes.  All of these obvious clues point to a snowpack that is greatly stressed from the recent loading. With more snow in the forecast later today into Tuesday, the snowpack won't get much of a break. We haven't heard or seen any natural avalanches but are inching closer to a tipping point that we may see natural avalanches happening tonight with intense precipitation rates and strong winds. 

Today is not the day to push things. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making are essential. If you're looking to stay safe, stick to slopes less than 30 degrees that aren't in avalanche path runouts or have terrain traps below. With more snow in the forecast through Tuesday, it's going to be a while before avalanche conditions ease.   

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