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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2012–Jan 7th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Flurries during the day on Friday should accumulate a couple of new cm by Saturday morning. A weak ridge of high pressure building over the coast is forecast to develop strong winds from the west or northwest and warm temperatures in the Cariboo. Moderate precipitation is expected to begin by midnight and continue during the day on Sunday. The freezing level is expected to rise to about 1800 metres in the Cariboo and West Monashee by Sunday morning. It looks like most of the snow will fall in the North and West of the Interior ranges. Expect moderate to strong northwest winds on Sunday becoming strong from the west in the South Columbia and Purcells. Cooler air is expected to move in to the region from the northwest on Monday. Precipitation amounts are un-certain at this time. Chinook conditions are expected for the Rockies.

Avalanche Summary

Some explosive and skier controlled avalanches up to size 1.5. Observations have been limited due to poor visibility and travel conditions.

Snowpack Summary

The storm slab is about 50 cm in this region. In the alpine and at treeline this new snow is being blown onto lee slopes and terrain features adding to previous soft slabs and wind slabs. In sheltered locations this new snow buries the surface hoar that formed over the New Years. We'll date this the January 3 SH layer, the crystals reported to be up to 10mm. This may become a concern with increased load as it reaches it's threshold. Some locations in the region received some rain up to 2000m, but consistent rain to 1500m. This may have solved our lower elevation New Years surface hoar layer. Below the surface down 80-140cms lurks the mid-December surface hoar/ crust/ facet layer. This is a layer of concern. Test results on this are still variable in the moderate to hard ranges with sudden planar characteristics. It continues to be sensitive to large triggers like cornice fall and explosives. Between this layer and the bottom of the snowpack sits a well settled mid pack. At the bottom of the snowpack basal facets and depth hoar crystals live. These become a concern in thinner snowpack areas, and became reactive under the new load of the post-Christmas storms.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.