Avalanche Forecast Cascades - East

Date Issued: Valid Until:

Matt Primomo,

Avalanche Forecast

Wed Jan. 23rd · 6:06PM

Alpine

Danger Ratings Considerable

Treeline

Danger Ratings Considerable

Below Treeline

Danger Ratings Moderate
Persistent Slabs Persistent Slabs
Storm Slabs Storm Slabs
Loose Wet Loose Wet

Alpine

Danger Ratings Considerable

Treeline

Danger Ratings Moderate

Below Treeline

Danger Ratings Moderate
The Bottom Line: We've added a substantial amount of new snow to the snowpack of the East Cascades, and lots of avalanche activity has been observed. With the added load, large avalanches may be easier to trigger on multiple deeper weak layers. Avoid avalanche terrain if you see signs of instability such as shooting cracks, or hear whumphs. When the sun comes out, watch out for loose wet slides on steep sunny slopes.

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

The East Central Cascades picked up from 2.0" to .3" of snow water equivalent, depending on location. Snow accumulated rapidly as heavy snow fell and the temperatures warmed up, this caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle throughout the Cascades. Many large paths ran in the area, entraining wet snow as the debris ran through the water saturated lower elevation snowpack. Most of these appear to have ran within the storm snow, but some may have taken out persistent weak layers. It appears that it rained up to around 5,000ft, but uncertainty remains regarding how far down the water percolated into the snowpack.

Recent large slide off the north side of Wedge Mountain that entrained wet snow and broke some burned trees.

Weather Forecast

Thu 24th Jan 13:53 - Kenny Kramer

Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Saturday

An upper-level ridge of high pressure is centered offshore and extends to the Gulf of Alaska, diverting Pacific storms well north of the area. A weak disturbance will move over the ridge and pass to the north of the area Thursday night, mainly causing increasing high clouds across the north and central part of the forecast area with no threat of precipitation. The passing disturbance will enhance cooler NW flow and temporarily lower freezing levels Thursday night. 

The ridge gains strength Friday through Saturday and moves closer to the coast. This will maintain mostly fair weather with a warming trend, especially at higher elevations.

Moisture will continue to be trapped at lower elevations under the building high pressure, maintaining low clouds and fog in the lower elevations, valleys and passes with some afternoon clearing expected.

Dry conditions with mostly sunny days at higher elevations will continue under high pressure through Saturday and into the weekend with high freezing levels as the ridge remains along the coast.

Regional Synopsis

Sun 20th Jan 09:00

January 20, 2019

The recent weather pattern of lower accumulation storms (by NW standards) and longer stretches of calm weather should continue as we move into late January. Since January 17th, incremental snow accumulations punctuated with rising freezing levels favored the south and eastern parts of the region. Storm instabilities have risen with storms and gradually subsided.

A storm slab at Mt Baker.


New Snow Problems

Storms over the past week have brought a range of layers from rain crusts, to heavy moist snow, to stiff drifts, to light dry powder. Some storm days, like the 18-19th, saw reactive, but very short-lived avalanches caused by heavy precipitation and wind. Even the longer-lasting avalanche problems, wind slabs, haven't persisted for more than a few days. Where the recent snow is stressing underlying weak layers, more dangerous avalanche conditions have prevailed.

Surface hoar in the East Central zone


Old Snow Problems

Persistent weak layers (PWLs) have been a constant in the eastern zones of the Cascades this winter. As usual, they have been much less problematic at the Passes and west of the Cascade Crest. The latest PWL is a layer of surface hoar, buried around January 17th and found generally east of the Cascade Crest. Buried surface hoar is an active weak layer in the eastern zones and can be found to a limited extent on the eastern edge of the Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass zones. There few, if any, avalanches have been reported on the buried surface hoar. It may be most problematic in open, wind-sheltered terrain, especially well above the valley floor.

You are most likely to find other layers of old weak snow the further you move east from the Cascade crest. Here snowpacks are shallower, more variable, and generally weaker. In some locations, weak snow near the ground can still be found. These basal facets have hung around all season. Digging profiles and using snowpack tests is the best way to gain information about these old persistent weak layers. However, snowpack tests are just one piece of the puzzle. Your terrain decisions shouldn't hinge on any given test result. Because of the size of our forecast zones and the variability in the snowpack, it's important to make snow observations as you travel. We’ll keep watching these old layers, but let us know what you see while you are in the mountains.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Put a large buffer of terrain between where you travel and any avalanche path. Slides may wrap around terrain features and surprise you and your group.

Large avalanches will be easier to trigger after yesterday's storm added to the slab over the weak layer. To the east the main concern lies in triggering the whole snowpack to the ground. Further west, the main layer of concern is surface hoar that was buried on the 17th. You can find this most readily on sheltered but open, shaded slopes, above the valley floor. Look for shooting cracks, recent avalanches, and listen closely for whumphs. Lack of evidence in one profile or snowpack test shouldn't be a reason to travel in more consequential terrain. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3
Storm Slabs

Storm Slabs

A substantial amount of new snow is to be found at elevations above 5,000ft, where precipitation fell as all snow. The snow fell cold initially, and temperatures warmed up as the snow accumulated. At upper elevations, the snow may be dry, and deep drifts are likely to be encountered. What is this new snow sitting on? Is there strong over weak? Is the new snow cracking, or do you see recent avalanches? Storm slab instabilities should decrease during the day as time helps settle these out. The deep new coat of snow will take time to bond, however. Travel with a conservative mindset, giving the snowpack another day to heal.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 2
Loose Wet

Loose Wet

When the sun comes out, expect loose wet avalanches on steep, sunny slopes. These could entrain a large amount of heavy, wet snow if they make it down to lower elevations. If you see roller balls, recent loose avalanches, or notice you are sinking in past your ankle in wet snow, it's time to get off of steep slopes.

Aspects: South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2