Avalanche Forecast

The recent clear weather should give way to increasing clouds and a return to a few light showers, especially late Sunday at moderating temperatures. The passes and areas near the crest will remain cool under east flow, however areas west of the crest, including Mt Baker and Mt Rainier should cool. 

A heightened avalanche danger should apply to wind-loaded slopes near and above treeline where east-southeast winds continue to build new wind slab on a variety of aspects. If you find the right (or better put, wrong) wind loaded slope, it will remain possible or even likely to trigger a small slab avalanche. Look for recently transported snow further downslope from ridgelines than you might expect.

The new wind slab is expected to be less of an issue in the North Cascades where winds continue to be less. 

An extended storm cycle in late December, dumped 5-9 feet of snowfall along the west slopes during the week ending December 24th. Light additional accumulations followed by high pressure over the past week have allowed slow but significant snowpack settlement and stabilizing. Widespread surface hoar or near surface faceting has been reported in sheltered areas during the current stretch of high pressure.

Surface snow conditions in many areas and on many terrain types have undergone significant changes over the past several days. Strong east winds have transported loose surface snow, building wind slab on a variety of aspects over the last few days, primarily in the central and south Cascades, including the Cascade Passes. The North Cascades, including the Mt. Baker area, have had less wind effect, but have experienced warmer temperatures, likely inducing some loose-wet slides over the last few days. 

On shaded and wind protected slopes, settled power is still providing fine conditions.    

Preliminary Granite Mountain Avalanche Fatality Information: Through preliminary interviews with SAR teams, a hiker died on Granite Mountain near Snoqualmie Pass Thursday, likely due to a wind slab avalanche on a west facing slope near treeline. The hiker was recovered by SAR on Friday morning and found on top of the avalanche debris. It is not known yet whether the slab was natural or human triggered.   

Recent avalanche and snowpack observations: 

Wed: NWAC pro observers Dallas Glass and Ian Nicholson were on Chair Peak at Snoqualmie and reported that wind slab was a bit more prevalent there than the past couple days. Dallas triggered a small wind slab on a 35-40 degree north slope at about 5500 feet.They saw another skier triggered wind slab on a southwest slope about 600 feet below a ridge. They felt wind slab was possible on a variety of slopes and to 1000 feet below ridges.

Thu: Moderate east transport winds were observed from Snoqualmie down to Mt. Hood.  NPS rangers from Mt. Rainier reported several D1/R1 (small) skier triggered wind slab on west aspect near treeline Thursday. Two skier triggered wind slabs were reported near Kendall peak (Snoqualmie area) on north and west aspects. Both were small but one ran a fair distance and took a skier for a ride. 

Fri: The MRNP Paradise backcountry ranger reported two harder wind slab releases on the west aspect off of Pan Face, and at least 1 was skier triggered. In a nearby pit, the ranger determined the wind slab was about 30 cm (1 ft) deep and 1F to P hardness. He also reported a skier a small triggered wind slab release on a SW aspect in the Nisqually area.