Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 4th, 2020 10:00AM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
NWAC,
Northwest Avalanche Center
Steer around open slopes greater than 35 degrees in areas where you find more than 8” of recent storm snow or suspect the wind drifted the snow deeper. Avalanches will be easier to trigger during periods of intense snowfall and wind, which you could experience in the afternoon.
Summary
Discussion
We received a report of a skier triggered slab avalanche from the Crystal backcountry Saturday afternoon. (East Peak, E aspect, 6200’, SS-AS-D1-N) A professional in the same area reported seeing shooting cracks in the snow near ridge crest. Both observations are clear signs of unstable snow. Often storm instabilities are shortlived, however, additional snow Sunday should maintain dangerous conditions. Be alert during periods of intense snowfall and blowing snow when it may be easier to trigger avalanches.
Look for unstable snow in the upper snowpack above a prominent crust layer buried on Friday. This layer may act as an excellent bed-surface for any avalanches. The curst may be most pronounces in near and below treeline terrain.
Snowpack Discussion
Happy New Year!
The pacific northwest rung in the new year with a winter storm cycle that brought changing conditions to our region. This storm exhibited three characteristics: warm, wet, and windy. Let’s take a look at the end of 2019, the beginning of 2020, and where we can go from here.
Wrapping up 2019
The last few days of December were generally quiet and cold. The snowpack seemed to enjoy this break in the weather. Lingering unstable snow from the pre-Christmas storms gained strength, persistent weak layers appeared to stabilize, and avalanche hazard decreased in all forecast zones. All in all 2019 ended quiet and uneventful… until the New Year’s Eve weather party showed up …
Quiet weather led to lower avalanche danger during the last week of 2019. Hogsback, White Pass, WA. Photo: Andy Harrington
Blowing into 2020
A warm, wet, and windy weather system blew into the northwest for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. This brought rapidly changing conditions and increasing avalanche hazard to all areas.
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Warm: Unfortunately this system brought with it warm air. Freezing levels measured near the coast reached 9000’ on the afternoon of the 31st. Many weather stations recorded above freezing temperatures during the onset of precipitation.
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Wet: While this system wasn’t as wet as the atmospheric river prior to Christmas, it still produced impressive water numbers in many areas. The bulk of the precipitation seemed to be focused on the Passes and Volcanoes, and water spilled over the crest to places like Washington Pass and Leavenworth. Sadly, when combined with the warm temperatures, this translated to rain well into the near treeline band (or higher) for most areas. The main exception appeared to be in the northeastern cascades, where locations like Washington Pass remained all snow.
HurRidge
MtBaker
WaPass
Stevens
Leavenworth
SnoqPass
MtRainier
MtHood
Precipitation (in)
1.84
3.39
1.42
4.56
1.06
6.19
5.39
5.41
Snow (in)
-
15
-
12
0
3
10
8
Table 1: Precipitation and storm totals from selected weather stations during the New Year’s Eve Storm. “-” 24hr storm snow not measured.
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Windy: While the warm and wet were impressive, it’s the winds that may set this storm apart. Most weather stations recorded very strong and extreme winds during the storm. Alpental exceeded 100mph just after midnight to ring in the new year. Any dry snow at high elevations was redistributed by the wind and snow surfaces were transformed.
Table 2: Wind speeds from New Year’s Eve from selected wind sites. Note the sustained period of winds between 40-60mph.
Eventually, temperatures cooled, the rain turned back to snow, and winds calmed. Many locations picked up additional snow as the storm wound down, but 2020 was already off and rolling with its first major storm.
New Year’s Resolutions
The active weather pattern that started the new year appears to continue. The snowpack and avalanche conditions will continue to change. So, what can your New Year Avalanche Resolutions be?
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Read the forecast. This is a great way to monitor conditions even if you aren’t heading into the mountains.
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Get out in the snow! Enjoy the wonderful mountains in your backyard.
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Submit an observation. Tell the avalanche center what you saw while out in the snow by submitting an observation and sending in a photo.
Thanks for all of your support in 2019 and here’s to 2020!
-Dallas
Problems
Storm Slabs
Identify and avoid open slopes greater than 35 degrees when you find more than 8” of new snow or suspect the wind drifted the snow into firmer and deeper slabs. You can investigate by digging in the snow and looking for slightly stronger snow over weaker snow. How is the snow bonding to the crust? Do you see any cracking as you break trail or turn a corner in the uptrack? These observations can help you confirm that storm slabs are present and conditions line-up with what you expected.
In areas where you find unconsolidated snow on the surface, you may trigger loose dry avalanches. Don’t let these sluffs surprise you. Even a small avalanche can harm you if it pushes you through rocks, around trees, or into a creek.
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 5th, 2020 10:00AM
