Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 24th, 2020 10:00AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Storm Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

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The West-south zone just experienced a significant winter storm and may have buried very weak snow. Even though the storm is over and the skies are clearing, be patient and give the snowpack time to adjust. Stay clear of convex rollovers, very steep slopes, and areas below cornices where you will be more likely to trigger a lingering avalanche.

Summary

Discussion

The recent storm brought 10-15” of new snow to most of the West South zone. As the storm clears, two items of uncertainty really stand out for this forecast. The first is the snowpack. Prior to the recent storm, observations reported a wide variety of snow surfaces including very weak surface hoar and facets. Some snow profiles in the Crystal area Monday found buried weak snow, however, no avalanches were reported on this layer from the backcountry. Now that the persistent grains are buried, it is extremely difficult to say where they exist. Prior to burial, surface hoar and facets were most prevalent on W-N-E aspects above 5000’. When uncertainty remains around persistent snow, it can be a good time to seek out lower angle and lower consequence terrain. 

Surface hoar E aspect 6300’ Crystal backcountry prior to the storm. Photo: Dallas Glass

The second source of uncertainty revolves around restored access to Paradise on Mt Rainier. Since the road closed in early February we have not received any information from this location. During that time frame, the snowpack grew by more than 30” and at least three major storm cycles impacted the area. If you travel near Paradise, ease into the terrain. Take time to gather observations and test the avalanche forecast. See if it represents conditions you’re experiencing. When in doubt, seek out lower angled slopes.

Snowpack Discussion

February 20, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)

Intermittent Storms

January’s non-stop pattern of storms extended into the first week of February. Since then, we’ve transitioned to more intermittent storms with notable stretches of high pressure and dry weather. We now see more variability through the region in the snowpack layering and avalanche conditions than in January. 

Significant periods of calm weather in February have allowed avalanche danger to decrease between storms. During the clear periods, strengthening late winter sun and gradual warming has brought some loose wet avalanche cycles to sunny slopes. Even so, from February 1st-20th there were 10 days when one or more zones were forecasted at all Low danger. In comparison, the month of January had zero days with any zone forecasted at all Low avalanche danger. 

Surface hoar near Snoqualmie Pass. February 19th. Photo: Ely Gerbin

Looking Forward

As we look forward, there are a number of considerations that are pertinent to most zones. The pattern of storms separated by clear periods may form new weak layers and interfaces to monitor. Many zones hold variable surfaces that warrant consideration as a travel hazard. In the Mt Hood Meadows area, two fatalities were related to falls on slick surfaces over President’s Day weekend. Another important consideration is the cornice growth that occurred in the past month from predominantly west winds. Very large cornices loom on ridges in most zones, except for possibly the Olympic Mountains. Future warming could be the added ingredient needed for cornices to fall. A close call with a cornice-triggered avalanche near White Pass on February 12th is a reminder of the potential hazard that cornices can pose. 

 

A party of three triggered this avalanche from below on a southeast aspect at 5400ft near Skyline Lake, Stevens Pass on February 16th. Two members of the party were fully buried and one was partially buried. The party self-rescued and no injuries were sustained. Photo: Dustin Riggs 

Weak Layers

So far this season, we’ve had limited persistent weak layers to deal with. February’s periods of calm weather developed a couple of weak layers and problematic interfaces that later got buried in the snowpack. On a whole, weak layers have been short-lived and have generally resolved within a couple of days of being buried. While the following weak layers are no longer major concerns, some readers may want a more in-depth understanding of them before venturing into the mountains.

In the Stevens Pass and East Central zones, the February 4th interface consisted of a thin layer of small (0.5-1.0mm) facets sitting on the stout February 1st melt forms (crust). The crust was widespread on all aspects up to at least 7500ft and the facets were most prominent on the northern half of the compass (west through north through east aspects). A major storm and avalanche cycle February 4th-7th totaled over 60 inches of snow. The February 4th interface was responsible for widespread avalanching including slides up to size D3 at most elevations. As direct action avalanches subsided, the February 4th interface was deeply buried and didn’t produce further triggered avalanches. Interestingly, as recent as February 18th, this interface was found in a profile and produced some mixed and head-scratching test results. While this interface is not a concern for triggered avalanches, you may still be able to find it 4-6 feet below the surface, especially on sheltered, shaded slopes at upper elevations.

 

A profile from 6460ft on a northeast aspect in the Chiwaukum Range on February 18th shows the February 4th layer. Small column tests produced sudden planar results while a Propagation Saw Test did not indicate propagation.

A more elusive and problematic layer for triggered avalanches was the February 13th interface. This was also most prominent in the Stevens Pass and East Central zones in addition areas of the West Central and Snoqualmie Pass zones. At Stevens Pass a combination of large (2.0-4.0mm) surface hoar and small (0.5mm) near-surface facets developed on a variety of surfaces and were buried on the 13th. The weak layer was most problematic on east through south aspects between 4,500-6,000ft, where the grains were preserved as they rested on a thin crust. It seemed that outside of this aspect and elevation range either 1) the weak grains did not persist enough to be triggered by travelers or 2) the underlying layer, or bed surface, wasn’t hard enough for the weak layer to be reactive. A number of parties reported natural and triggered avalanches on southeast aspects during the storm cycle on Presidents Day weekend. This included a party of three that were uninjured after all being caught, with two full-burials, in a surprising avalanche near Skyline Lake on the 17th. As of February 20th, the interface is 1-3 feet below the surface and has become difficult to trigger. The February 13th interface is still visible in the snowpack and we continue to monitor it. It will likely become inactive before the end of the month.

In summary, February has been a great time to explore the mountains and enjoy the longer days for recreating in this season’s robust snowpack. Though, not without complexity and variability. Continue to monitor changing conditions and check the daily avalanche forecasts for the most up to date information. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

At mid and upper elevations, very strong winds redistibuted the storm snow. Exposed windward slopes were stripped down to old firm crust, while sheltered terrain became loaded. Take time to identify and avoid slopes where you think the wind deposited snow. Look for clues such as textured snow surfaces, drifts behind objects, and cornices to help you identify wind loaded areas. Wind slabs could be larger and easier to trigger near the tops of ridges and as you ascend above treeline.

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

The recent storm snow seems to be gaining strength, however, some uncertainty with the recent snow interface keeps them on our minds. You could trigger storm slabs on convex mid-slope features, in unsupported terrain, and on very steep slopes. If the storm slabs fail on buried facets or surface hoar, they could propagate widely, fail on lower angle slopes, or trigger remotely. You can use snow profiles to gather information on the recent storm interface, but remember the absence of persistent grains in a snow pit does not prove their absence on nearby slopes. 

You may experience a bit of sunshine on Tuesday as skies clear and temperatures warm. This will cause the snowpack to change. Monitor changes in conditions as you travel. You could see natural loose wet avalanches shedding from steep rocky slopes or cornices failing naturally. Keep in mind what’s above your head, and how it may respond to a warm and sunny afternoon

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Feb 25th, 2020 10:00AM