Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 27th, 2019 11:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Wet loose avalanches within recent snow are still a concern. Fresh wind slabs could be human triggered on leeward upper elevation slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Time your travel to be out of consequential terrain early as the avalanche hazard increases with warming throughout the day.

Summary

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

Wednesday brought blue skies and sunshine with highs in the mid-40s at the 5000ft level. Wet loose activity was reported, primarily near and above treeline on steep sun-exposed slopes. The new snow has even become wet on shady slopes with a report of a large skier triggered wet loose avalanche (D2) on the north side of Table Mountain on Tuesday afternoon. (observation) Above 5500ft on the Easton Glacier on Mt Baker, observers found 6-10in of settled dry snow on Wednesday, and strong easterly winds blowing snow.

The snowpack continues to undergo a spring transition. As a result, you may encounter a wide variety of snow conditions including powder snow, breakable crust, wet sloppy snow, and firm slick conditions. Be on the lookout for opening creeks, melting cornices, and unpredictable glide cracks. Use caution if you travel near these features.

Snowpack Discussion

March 27th, 2019

Enter Spring

If you’ve been in the snow recently, the wintery conditions of early March may seem worlds away. You may be in for a surprise if it’s been a while since you were in the mountains. The weather has taken a turn towards spring in the last couple weeks and the Cascade snowpack the has undergone major changes. Unseasonably warm temperatures and strong sun followed a month-and-a-half of cold, winter storms. Mid-elevation weather stations stayed above freezing from March 15th-22nd with high temperatures reaching the upper 50’s to low 60’s. For an in-depth survey of the regional snowpack, we’ll divide the terrain up by aspect and elevation.

A graph showing temperatures between 4,000-5,000ft around the Cascades from the 16th-21st.

Aspects

Northerlies

Along with the warm temperatures, the spring sun has played a major role in warming snow surfaces. The result is a snowpack that varies by aspect. In most regions, shaded and northerly slopes remain relatively unchanged. Aside from some settlement and firmer or moist surfaces, the snow on north aspects is almost entirely dry. Even some low elevation north slopes are still holding snow.

Sunny slopes

The snowpack on east through south through west aspects is a different story. The strong March sun melted snow surfaces and drove melt-water into the snowpack. This is most dramatic on steep (over 35 degrees) southeast through southwest slopes below 5,000ft.  In some areas, you can find meltwater up to 3 feet below the snow surface with drainage channels well established. Between this warm period and rain events in the first half of the winter, the entire snowpack has transformed to melt forms. Of note is that as of the 27th, these solar aspects have only undergone partial freezes with lower layers remaining unfrozen. Cooler weather may continue to strengthen these slopes.

A glide avalanche (D2) released from a rock slab late on the 20th. Lichtenberg Mtn, 5,100ft, SE aspect. Other glide avalanches occurred on the 20th at Snoqualmie Pass and in Tumwater Canyon. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Elevation

Low elevations

As you travel from low valleys to higher peaks, you’ll notice a major difference in the snowpack based on elevation. With all the low-elevation snow this winter, there are still some cold, shaded slopes holding pockets of snow down to 1,000ft, especially east of the Cascade Crest. However, most slopes below 3,000ft have lost much of their snow cover. Many low elevation, sun-exposed slopes are bare, especially in areas that previously held less than 3 feet of snow. The low elevation snowpack is no longer substantial enough to allow for easy travel over snow or widespread avalanches.

Loose wet avalanches on the south side of Table Mtn, near Mt Baker. 3/17. Photo: Pete Durr

Mid-elevations

At mid-elevations, around 3,000-5,000ft, the snowpack is still deep and layered. Many slopes at this elevation band near and west of the Cascade Crest are holding 6-10 feet of snow. This is also where you’ll find the most dramatic variation in the snowpack based on aspect.

High-elevations

Above 5,000ft you’ll encounter a snowpack similar to what you may have found around the 1st of March. Upper elevations have stayed mostly dry. The most sun-exposed slopes have surface crusts but have not seen much water or change to melt forms below the surface.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Light rain and warm temperatures will maintain the potential for wet loose avalanches within the recent storm snow. A few sun breaks are even possible on Thursday. More wet snow is left to shed off rocky terrain features and unsupported slopes steeper than 40 degrees. Although anticipated wet loose slides would likely be small, they can still be dangerous if they carry you into a terrain trap, like gullies, trees, or cliffs. Be off of steep slopes before the snow gets wet and weak.

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Variable winds have redistributed the recent snow and formed isolated wind slabs in alpine terrain. You are most likely to trigger a wind slab just below ridgelines, in gully features, and on exposed convex rollovers. Pay attention as you transition into wind affected terrain. If you see textured snow surfaces, small cornices, or locally deeper snow accumulations be leery of nearby slopes greater than 35 degrees.

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Mar 28th, 2019 11:00AM