Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 24th, 2019 10:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

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You may still be able to trigger a stubborn storm slab at upper elevations on steep, northerly slopes. Remind yourself that we’re only 4 days removed from an enormous loading event and at upper elevations, reports and information are scarce. Evaluate the terrain you’re on and your party’s exposure in the event you trigger a large avalanche.

Summary

Discussion

Santa brought Christmas presents early to the West North zone in the form of 3-4ft+ of snow (7.5in water) we received December 18-21 and now we’re on that long drawn out tail of the avalanche cycle histogram. This was the most impressive storm so far this winter and it produced a widespread avalanche cycle with numerous natural and triggered avalanches to size D3 occurring Friday and Saturday. Since the precipitation ended on Saturday, the storm snow settled 10” with a slowing rate of settlement indicative of a gradually stabilizing storm slab. 

On 12/24, Mt. Baker Pro Patrol evaluated several nicely rounding weaker layers near the base of the snowpack on a NE aspect at 5080 ft and found these layers were not reactive in tests. It’s worth keeping these early season weaknesses in the back of your mind given the recent loading event, but we don’t have evidence that they are of concern without a major loading event.

While the deep, unconsolidated snowpack continues to settle, snow immersion and tree well accidents are common. Travel with a partner and keep them in sight. Find out more information here.

Merry Christmas! We extend our gratitude in advance for submitting observations to NWAC so we can help you enjoy your holidays safely.

Snowpack Discussion

New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.

 

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

We think that it’s still possible to trigger a 1-3 ft storm slab on steep slopes above treeline, but it is becoming unlikely near treeline where temperatures were warmer during the storm. The storm snow is gaining strength, but this major recent storm event should give us pause before giving bigger terrain the green light: If you do trigger an avalanche, it’s unlikely to be small. Steer around large, steep, unsupported, rocky, slopes at upper elevations. When in doubt, default to lower-angled terrain. Avalanches are unlikely below treeline where recent wet heavy snow has become firm and frozen with cooling temperatures.

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Dec 25th, 2019 10:00AM