Avalanche Forecast

Expect rain to near crest level elevations Thursday night into Friday as this system progresses South to North. In locations where soft surface snow exists or surface crusts are thin, Loose-Wet avalanche may occur. Activity is expected to be confined to isolated locations and produce only small avalanches. The peak of the loose-wet activity will likely occur overnight Thursday and greatly diminish by daylight hours on Friday.

At higher elevations, light snowfall combined with wind will create a developing wind slab problem on Friday. Wind slabs will be more prevalent in the afternoon as more snow becomes available for transport, especially at higher elevations.

In the Passes a potential freezing rain event will limit the development of any avalanche problems at lower elevations.

Watch the conditions as they develop in front of you. Be prepared to change your plans as weather and conditions change.

Despite all this new snow, early season hazards still exist. Many creek beds have still not filled in for the winter.

Light rain spread across the area during the day Thursday, falling on a variety of snow surfaces that developed prior to this storm.

Very firm surface crust, strong settled snow, breakable crust, soft-loose snow, old wind slabs, and moist sun affected snow have all been reported from around the region within the past few days.

Despite the variable surface conditions, reports indicate a strong upper snowpack with no notable layers of concern. Mild weather over the past several days has allowed for lingering weakness to gain strength, causing a diminishing avalanche hazard.

Observations

North

NWAC Pro observers were on Shuksan Arm on Wednesday. A melt freeze crust was present on all aspects with variable thickness. The 12/29 rain crust was observable on all aspects down approximately 8".

Central

On Wednesday, an avalanche professional was on Rock Mountain in the Stevens Pass area observed reactive wind slabs on a NE aspect at 5300' just below a ridge. A small loose-wet avalanche cycle did occur during the day on solar aspects above 5,000'. Snow was being eroded from E winds in the above treeline zone. Below 4000', faceted snow was seen both above and below various crust layers in the upper snowpack.

On Wednesday, a NWAC forecaster was in the Alpental backcountry and noted an overall strengthening snowpack. The top 4" of snow is poorly bonded to the very supportable 12/29 0.5" freezing rain crust. Travel was very difficult with loose snow over a very firm, slick bed surface! Small loose wet slides were on SE-S-SW aspects on steep, rocky, sunny slopes

South

On Wednesday, Professional Observer Ian Nicholson was in the Crystal backcountry and found breakable crusts and sun-affected snow.  Steeper solar slopes were capable of producing huge roller-balls but dry snow remaining on NW through NE aspects. He did get a rather stiff wind slab to break cleanly down 20 cm on a specific terrain feature near treeline.