Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 16th, 2017 11:22AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wet Slabs and Wind Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Cooling should reduce the potential for wet slab and wet loose avalanches through the day on Friday. Use caution on steeper and unsupported terrain, especially in areas lacking a strong near-surface crust. Watch for shallow fresh wind slabs near ridges.

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Continued cooling with light to moderate snow showers expected overnight Thursday and early Friday. Friday should remain mostly cloudy with a chance of a few light showers.

This weather will help to decrease the avalanche danger by allowing the remaining liquid water in the upper snowpack to slowly drain and slowly refreeze to form a near surface crust.  However, the recent heavy rains have likely left significant liquid water in the upper snowpack, making wet snow avalanches still possible Friday.  

Wet slab avalanches are hard to predict and potentially powerful due to the high water content within the slab. The wet slab potential is decreasing through Friday, but extra caution is advised on steeper and unsupported terrain, especially in areas lacking a strong near-surface crust

Watch for areas where new snow received by Friday may be greater than expected, allowing  shallow new wind slabs to have developed near ridgelines.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

A rain event beginning last Wednesday 2/8, left a strong rain crust with varying amounts, from about 5-15 inches, of snow accumulating in most areas, by Saturday 2/11. Strong west winds, exposed a firm and slick crust on windward aspects in many areas.  

High pressure last Saturday to Tuesday brought increasing sunshine and warm temperatures. Temperatures reached the 40's and 50's in most areas of the Cascades by Monday and Tuesday. This caused about 6-12 inches of snowpack settlement.  

Another atmospheric river impacted the PNW beginning Tuesday night. Heavy precipitation at high snow levels fell in all the west slopes of the Cascades zones. Two day rain amounts ranged mostly from 1.5 - 4.5 inches of water, with the Mt Baker area receiving nearly 7 inches of rain by Thursday morning.

Localized freezing rain occurred during this event along the lower slopes of the Cascade Passes, where a variable strength, freezing rain crust formed at mid and lower elevations. 

A slow cooling trend began overnight Wednesday with light to moderate snow showers depositing 2-6 inches of new snow by Thursday evening at mid and upper elevations.

The wet snowpack continues to drain and is beginning to slowly refreeze as of Thursday evening. 

Recent Observations

North

Thursday 2/16, the Mt Baker pro patrol reported a very large naturally triggered slab at the east end of Shuksan Arm that released sometime during the rain event. The initial estimates of the crown height are 20 feet!  

Central

Alpental pro-patrol did not perform avalanche control Wednesday, but reported a 1/2" freezing rain crust up to about mid-mountain with rain falling on the upper mountain. 

South

No observations on Wednesday.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Wet Slabs

An icon showing Wet Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slab avalanches can be very destructive.

 

Avoid terrain where and when you suspect Wet Slab avalanche activity. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty

 

A Wet Slab avalanche. In this avalanche, the meltwater pooled above a dusty layer of snow. Note all the smaller wet loose avalanches to either side.

Wet slabs occur when there is liquid water in the snowpack, and can release during the first few days of a warming period. Travel early in the day and avoiding avalanche paths when you see pinwheels, roller balls, loose wet avalanches, and during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Feb 17th, 2017 11:22AM