Avalanche Forecast

Wednesday will be a transition day with lighter winds, some scattered light showers over the west slopes of the Washington Cascades, light to moderate showers at Mt Hood and slightly warmer temperatures. There will be strong sun effects through clouds if not direct sun at times in this area. More sun is likely over the Olympics and along the Cascade east slopes.

Wednesday will be a day of transition from winter-like avalanche problems such as wind slab and storm slab to solar driven loose wet or possible wet slab avalanches. Direct sun or sun effects through clouds can rapidly make new snow sensitive and underlying firm snow can provide good smooth bed surfaces - this includes ski runs at closed ski areas.

Conditions will be more dangerous on Wednesday in the areas with significant storm snow - say more than about 6 inches. In general the heaviest storm snow has been on the volcanoes especially Mt Hood. Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected and backcountry travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended in these areas on Wednesday.

Careful snowpack evaluation and cautious routefinding will be essential and shallower storm snow will still likely be sensitive to triggering in other areas.

Due to stronger winds and heavier snow, conditions are likely to more dangerous above the crest level on the volcanoes.

Less danger is likely where there is less storm snow along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades.

Looking further out, with all the snow the past couple days, warmer weather and strong spring sun or sun effects there is likely to be a spring avalanche cycle the next few days. More special statements for spring avalanche conditions are likely later this week.

Say goodbye to winter...but not to avalanches.

The weather will finally do a pretty dramatic shift from the winter-like pattern so far this spring to a fair weather pattern this week. With all the snow the past couple days, warmer weather and strong spring sun or sun effects through clouds there is likely to be a spring avalanche cycle the next few days.

On Monday night in advance of the front there was increasing moderate southwest alpine winds and increasing moderate to heavy rain or snow near and west of the crest with lowering snow levels.

Then a strong late season front crossed the Northwest on Tuesday morning. An upper low pressure system and cold, unstable air mass is following and moving southeast over Washington on Tuesday. The strongest winds have been in the south Cascades and especially Mt Hood. Snow levels on Tuesday have bumped up a little due to afternoon warming to the 4-5000 foot range in most areas but are a little lower at Mt Hood.

Communications to the base weather station are out at Mt Baker likely due to lightning on May 4th. But the ski area crew there today reported about 15 inches of storm snow.

Storm snow for the 2 days ending Wednesday morning will range from about 4-6 inches at Hurricane, .5 - 1.5 feet along the west slopes of the Washington Cascades (generally above the pass levels), about 2 feet at Mt Hood with lighter amounts likely along the Cascade east slopes.