Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 7th, 2019 11:00AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

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Recently formed wind slabs may linger near and above treeline on shaded slopes. Rain may cause a fresh round of shallow wet loose avalanches below 5500' Monday, potentially becoming large if they gouge down to recent snow.  Avoid consequential terrain where a small avalanche could become serious.

Summary

Discussion

Recently formed wind slabs should be healing, but continue to approach wind loaded slopes found in higher terrain cautiously. Steer around steep unsupported slopes with wind-drifted snow cautiously, feeling for firm or hollow sounding snow as a sign that wind slabs may be present. You can stay safe by traveling on ridges, wind-scoured areas and any slope less than 35 degrees.

You may still trigger a wet loose avalanche on very steep slopes with wet snow. Light rain Sunday night and Monday will also increase the chances for wet snow avalanches below 5500'. Wet loose avalanches have the potential to become large if they gouge into areas that received significant amounts of snow over the weekend.

Avoid triggering a wet loose avalanche near a terrain trap such as cliff bands, open creeks, exposed or barely covered rocks and trees, etc, that would amplify the consequences of even a small wet loose avalanche. On many southerly aspects, the new snow will be covering previously bare ground. If you find wet snow deeper than your ankle, make the easy call to stick to lower angled terrain.

Forecast Schedule and No Rating

At this time, we do not have enough specific snowpack information to issue an avalanche hazard rating for the East Slopes South zone. However, even when No Rating is applied, applicable avalanche conditions and backcountry travel advice will be provided throughout the season. When weather systems produce very dangerous avalanche conditions in adjacent zones, NWAC will issue an avalanche warning for this zone as well.

Snowpack Discussion

April 3rd, 2019

Spring snowmelt

The snowpack in much of the Cascades has changed dramatically in the past two weeks. The weather has shifted solidly to spring-like patterns. The spring warm-up started in mid-March with a prolonged period of relatively clear skies and warm temperatures. Moving into April, we’re seeing periods of unsettled spring weather bringing rain to many low and mid-elevation slopes and snow to upper elevations.

Very bare southeast aspects of Rock Mtn/Nason Ridge. April 2nd. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Since the peak height of snow in mid to late February, mountain weather stations in the 4,000-5,000ft range show an average of 27% decrease in height of snow. Looking at weather stations in nearly every zone, the percentage decrease ranged from 22-29%. This year's spring snowmelt is much earlier than normal. Traveling in the mountains the loss of snow coverage is most noticeable on southerly, sun-exposed slopes and below 4,000ft. On northerly aspects and slopes above 5,500ft, the snowpack has seen less dramatic changes and has even maintained some dry layers.

NWAC climatological snow depth data from April 1st. You can view it on our website here.

 

A natural loose wet avalanche (D1), Lichtenberg Mtn, N, 4,850ft. 4/7/2019. Photo: Will Govus

 

Spring avalanche considerations

As you head into the mountains there are a few questions to ask yourself common to spring avalanche conditions:

  1. Is there any recent snow accumulation that could cause avalanches? If so, what kind of avalanches could you trigger? And where?

  2. What are the high and low temperatures of the past 24 hours as well as the forecasted temperatures during the time you’ll be in the mountains? Could these create weak, wet snow surfaces?

  3. How is the cloud cover contributing to the melting or freezing of surface snow? Did clear skies allow for a sufficient overnight freeze? Will the sun be strong enough to weaken surface layers?

Debris from a natural loose wet avalanche (D2), Lichtenberg Mtn, SW, 5,000ft. 4/7/2019. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Other considerations

In addition to daily avalanche hazard, the early snowmelt is creating some other travel considerations. Some roads and lower elevation slopes may not have enough continuous snow coverage for travel on snow machines. Holes melted around rocks, trees, and creeks could create a fall hazard. When nighttime temperatures and cloud cover allow for surface freezes, bring appropriate equipment to mitigate slip and fall hazard on steep slopes.

We are approaching the end of our daily avalanche forecasting season. The mountain weather forecast will continue into the spring, and the weather station data is available year round. Keep checking the forecast for conditions updates on the end of season information.

Glide avalanches and holes opening up in rocky terrain near Mount Herman. Photo: Andrew Kiefer

Valid until: Apr 8th, 2019 11:00AM