Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 8th, 2019 11:22AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Very dangerous avalanche conditions will develop Friday night and Saturday. New snow and wind will stress weaker, older snow, setting the stage for large and deadly avalanches. Stay off of steep slopes and don't linger near or under any slope steeper than 30 degrees. You could trigger avalanches from far away or from the bottom of overhead slopes.

Summary

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

We expect that a weak snowpack in the eastern portion of the East Slopes Central forecast zone will be pushed to the breaking point for large natural and human triggered avalanches by new snow and wind over the weekend.  Since a similar shallow and weak snowpack likely exists in portions of the East Slopes South zone, we are expecting very dangerous avalanche conditions to develop Friday night and Saturday here as well. 

Forecast Schedule and No Rating

At this time, we do not have enough specific snowpack information to issue an avalanche hazard rating for the East Slopes South zone. However, even when No Rating is applied, applicable avalanche conditions and backcountry travel advice will be provided throughout the season. When weather systems produce very dangerous avalanche conditions in adjacent zones, NWAC will issue an avalanche warning for this zone as well.

Snowpack Discussion

Regional Synopsis coming soon. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

You can trigger wind slab avalanches in open terrain at all elevations. Stay off of leeward slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Steer around wind pillows and drifts. With drifts forming on old, weak snow, wind slab avalanches may be easier to trigger than you might expect. You may also be able to trigger these avalanches from further away than is typical.

Strong and gusty easterly winds with plenty of light dry snow will efficiently build slabs. Expect wind drifting in open areas below treeline. In less wind-affected areas, watch for loose dry avalanches on slopes over 35 degrees. Some of these could be big enough to bury or kill you.

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

The new snow is stressing weak layers deep in the snowpack. Watch for cracking, listen for collapses, and dig down to identify these layers of weak, sugary snow with snowpack tests. Persistent slab avalanches can be triggered from much lower angled terrain. This is not the time to travel in or near terrain capable of producing large avalanches.

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.

 

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

 

This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.

Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Feb 9th, 2019 11:22AM