Avalanche Forecast

This has been a prolonged spring-time weather pattern and loose wet avalanche cycle, as each day closely resembles the last. Other zones experienced a few natural avalanches each day this week, but so far we have not received reports of a widespread large cycle. Expect clear skies and cool temperatures to help the snowpack refreeze Thursday night limiting the danger first thing in the morning. This will change quickly as temperatures soar and the snow softens. When you find more than 4” (about ankle deep) of wet snow on the surfaces, the snow is shifting from “soft and fun” to “weak and possibly unstable.” Seek out slightly firmer and less sun affected terrain by changing aspects. 

Example: Natural loose wet avalanche on an NW aspect in a nearby zone. Photo: Dallas Glass

The same heat and sun that weakens the snow surface each day could produce larger less predictable avalanches. Natural cornice falls, glide avalanches, and deeper slabs could all occur, particularly during the heat of the day. This snowpack has not fully transitioned to springtime and may struggle as water moves through some of its layers. Be suspicious of large complex sunny terrain. Consider the slopes above you. They may be feeling the full brunt of the sun, even as you shiver in the shade. 

Many zones still report cold dry (all be it variable) snow at upper elevations and on steep shaded slopes. As you enter these winter-like pockets, you’ll want to adjust your mindset and turn your eyes to areas where the wind drifted the snow deeper. Carefully evaluate your line for any signs of wind loading before committing to the slope. 

March 19, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)

This week brought a whirlwind of change to our community, the mountains, and the snowpack. It’s mind-boggling to think of how everything changed in just a few short days. Last weekend, a strong winter storm brought frigid temperatures and fluffy powder to many mountain locations. While the calendar read March, conditions felt more like mid-winter. The hands-down winner during this storm was Mission Ridge and the surrounding mountains. As the skies cleared, sunshine and warm temperatures settled into the northwest. Now we’re in the midst of a prolonged spring-like pattern as the snowpack slowly transitions. The biggest change this week may be the impact of the Coronavirus on our community, local mountain operations, and backcountry travel. We continue to work through and adapt to all of these changes in our daily lives as we mark the first official day of spring. 

Wenatchees for the Win

We all know the Wenatchee mountains can receive serious dumps of snow, but this season conditions had been fairly dry. Prior to this past week, Snotel sites and weather stations in the Wenatchees reported only about 65% of average snow depth for the season. A strong low-pressure system began impacting the Pacific Northwest last Friday. However this storm did not follow the usual storm track, it meandered south off the coast, spinning moisture around its center, and sending snow into the Cascades from the SE. When moisture wraps around and approaches our mountains from this direction, it can pack quite a punch along the eastern slopes of the Cascades and in particular the Wenatchees. Early Friday morning, Mission Ridge entered a near 48hr stretch of continuous snowfall. A secondary impact of this low-pressure system was an influx of cold Canadian air which dropped snow levels to near sea level for nearly all locations. The cold air mass combined with the unusual storm track led to substantial accumulations of light fluffy snow; Mission Ridge quickly stacked up over 2ft of very light powder. This new snow and strong winds produced some of the spiciest avalanche conditions for this season in the East Central zone. Numerous natural and human triggered avalanches occurred during and following the storm, including some remotely triggered slides.

Skier triggered avalanche on the Diamond Head in the Wenatchee Mountains. NW, 5200’ 3/14 Photo: Adam Butterfield. 

Other locations in the region only added a few inches to their snow totals for the season. The position of the storm only brought dribs and drabs to the mountains from about Hwy 2 and south. A few standouts further south managed to ring out around a foot (Mt St Helens, White Pass, and Paradise). Strong easterly winds in most areas significantly redistributed the new snow and resulted in reports of numerous natural and human triggered slab avalanches Saturday and Sunday. 

Natural wind slab avalanche on Mt St Helens. W 5500’ 3/14: Photo Nate Berry 

Spring has Sprung

Thursday the 19th ushered in the first official day of spring. All winter, we’ve seen storms creating sometimes unique and occasionally similar snowpacks and avalanche conditions for each of our forecast zones. Following the storm last weekend, a sunny and warm springtime pattern took hold of the region. As it did so, it brought with it a prolonged gradual warm-up and loose wet avalanche cycle. Consequently, differences formerly found in each region slowly resolved as the mountains transitioned into spring. 

A natural loose wet avalanche near Washington Pass, Cutthroat Peak. 3/17. Photo: Gus Goldman

Two items still stand out about this spring transition. 1: the snowpack has not fully moved into a spring-like state. You can still find pronounced cold dry layers and firm icy crust in many areas. 2: We have not seen a spring “shed” cycle yet, where several large natural avalanches occur as the snowpack adjusts to percolating water and warmer temperatures. Forecasting spring shed cycles can be difficult, and it's still unclear when or even if a larger natural wet cycle will occur. 

You can continue to support your community-based avalanche center by submitting observations. 

Stay safe, stay healthy, and thank you for all your support. 

Dallas Glass