Avalanche Forecast

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

Read the East Central zone forecast for the most complete information for more detail pertaining to a deeper and potentially deadly avalanche concerns that also persist in the Cascades East South zone where significant snow accumulated during the 2/9-2/12 storm cycle. The recent snow, estimated to be 2-3 ft based on area Snotels, may be resting on an old weak snow/firm crust sandwich, creating ripe conditions for persistent slab avalanches. Any terrain, even low elevations, that had a shallow snowpack prior to this cycle should be treated as potential avalanche terrain (think northerly aspects with sagebrush). While it the likelihood of triggering a life-threatening avalanche is slowly decreasing, it is not yet time to take this chance.

Persistent slab avalanches can break widely across terrain features, come down on top of you, and can be triggered from a long distance away. These avalanches are difficult to predict and can break wide and in surprising ways by wrapping around terrain features.

If you hear large whumpfs, experience sudden collapses in the snowpack, see shooting cracks in relatively flat terrain or remotely trigger an avalanche, nature is trying to tell you deadly persistent slab avalanches are possible.

A trace to a few inches of snow may fall by Sunday morning. If the sun warms the snow surfaces on Sunday, expect small loose snow avalanches and roller ball activity.

Forecast Schedule and No Rating

At this time, we do not have enough specific snowpack information to issue an avalanche hazard rating for the East Slopes South zone. However, even when No Rating is applied, applicable avalanche conditions and backcountry travel advice will be provided throughout the season. When weather systems produce very dangerous avalanche conditions in adjacent zones, NWAC will issue an avalanche warning for this zone as well.

February 15, 2019

Since February 8th, the mountains (and low elevation cities) of the Pacific Northwest have experience cold and very storm weather. Significant snowfall has added up in all forecast zones. Records from Snoqualmie Pass DOT avalanche workers back to 1973 show that February 11-12th set a record for the most snow recorded in a 24hr period at that location. The table below shows storm totals starting February 8th through the morning of the 13th

5 day totals ending morning of Feb 13th

Water Equivilent (inches)

24hr storm totals

(inches)

Difference in Height of Snow (inches)

Hurricane Ridge

1.97

N/A

+ 30

Mt. Baker

1.94

44

Washington Pass

1.66

NA

+ 16

Stevens Pass

2.71

49

Snoqualmie Pass

3.91

80

Mission Ridge

1.86

38

Crystal

2.91

59

Paradise

4.55

N/A

White Pass

N/A

57 (4400ft)

+ 26 (5800ft)

Mt. Hood Meadows

4.70

43

Heavy precipitation brought many mountain regions to their tipping point. Avalanches ran readily with a peak of snowfall intensity. For Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass, East Central, West South, Mt Hood, and possibly West Central zones we have good confirmation that this cycle happened from the night of February 11th through the 12th. In other zones, snow totals haven’t been significant enough for widespread avalanche cycles, or we lack data (like in the East South zone).

A natural persistent slab avalanche (D2.5) on a southeast aspect at 6,600ft. Grindstone Mtn in Icicle Canyon. Likely ran 2/12. Photo: Matt Primomo

The high rates of precipitation drove avalanches in the storm snow. Notably, a persistent weak layer of facets and surface hoar was buried in most zones on February 8th. Storms produced a widespread and prolonged cycle of avalanches on the February 8th interface, involving a variety of aspects and elevations. Local ski patrols, highway workers, and backcountry travelers reported extensive avalanching with widely propagating crowns and very sensitive conditions. With less stormy weather, observers have just begun to get a sense of the extent of the avalanche activity. Triggering persistent slab avalanches will be a concern for backcountry travelers in zones where the February 8th weak layer is active for at least the near, if not distant future. Stay tuned for more updates.

Large surface hoar near Snow Lake Divide on February 7, 2019 just before it was buried on the 8th. Photo: Jeremy Allyn