Cascades - South East Avalanche Forecast
Jan 15th, 2020 10:00AM
Avalanche danger is stabilizing, but unusually cold temperatures are slowing the process. Assume you can trigger a large avalanche on any steep open slope with wind drifted snow. In non-wind affected terrain, think about the consequences of a loose dry avalanche near terrain traps.
Consistent west winds near and above treeline have moved recent snow onto lee slopes at mid and upper elevations. Winds shifted today and are now coming from the east. Carefully observe the pattern of wind transported snow by looking for active snow transport or fresh new cornice development. Avoid steep open slopes where you see signs of wind transported snow such as cornices, and pillow-like drifts of snow. Give fresh cornices some space when traveling along ridgelines and avoid traveling directly below cornices.
Following this cold storm cycle, you will find wind-sheltered areas with deep uncohesive loose snow. On very steep slopes, these loose snow avalanches or “sluffs” can be large enough to push you over or knock you into tree wells or open creeks.
In non-wind affected terrain, deep snow hazards also exist. Before heading out, learn about tree well or snow immersion suffocation risks and travel with a partner (www.deepsnowsafety.org). Also, be prepared for the coldest temperatures seen this winter over the next several days.
Forecast Schedule and No Rating definition
We do not have enough specific snowpack information to issue an avalanche hazard rating for the East South zone. However, even when No Rating is applied, applicable avalanche conditions and backcountry travel advice will be provided throughout the season - this forecast is updated every day, all winter long! When weather systems produce very dangerous avalanche conditions in adjacent zones, NWAC will issue an avalanche warning for this zone as well.
January 12th update: In the past week, there have been two fatal avalanche accidents to the east of NWAC's forecast area. One occurred near Kellog, ID and another outside of Baker City, OR. Local avalanche centers will perform accident investigations including final reports. You can find preliminary accident information at avalanche.org.
January 9th, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)
As we said Happy New Year and rang in 2020, snow was turning to rain at many trailheads and lower elevation Passes, not exactly the fresh start winter recreationalists had in mind. The snowpack was already looking a little thin throughout the region, especially at lower elevations. Low snow in places like Snoqualmie Pass made backcountry travel difficult and hazardous. NWAC’s snow depth climatology report was showing snow depths 25-64% of normal to kick off the start of 2020.
Things can change quickly in the Pacific Northwest and they did as we entered an extended storm cycle between January 2nd to January 8th. Strong winds, fluctuating temperatures, and heavy precipitation offered few breaks in the weather over this period limiting observations and hampering travel. Despite periods of rain at lower elevations, most areas saw several feet of new snow with big jumps in total snow depths as a westerly storm track strongly favored the West Slopes of the Cascades and the Olympics for the highest precipitation totals.
Total Snow Depth (in) 1/2/20
Total Snow Depth (in) 1/8/20
Heather Meadows Mt Baker
Crystal Mt Green Valley
Paradise Mt Rainier
White Pass Upper
Mt Hood Meadows
We may have started with a shallow snowpack, but most locations increased their snowpack by 70% or more over this storm cycle!
During this extended and impressive storm cycle that included backcountry avalanche warnings, natural avalanches were reported in many areas Jan 6th-7th.
The Stevens Pass area was especially active over the period with over 100(!) avalanche observations made on the 6th and 7th. Professionals reported numerous avalanches in places that they hadn't previously observed avalanches and some paths avalanched multiple times in a 24 hour period. Observers reported a few very large (size D2.5-3) avalanches, originating at upper elevations with deeper crowns that likely formed from wind drifting. Topping off an active couple of days, warming temperatures lead to a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle.
The southern Washington Cascades, the Wentachee Mountains and Mt. Hood either saw less precipitation, warmer temperatures leading to more rain than snow, or some combination of the two and ended up with relatively less active avalanche conditions than areas further north.
A large natural avalanche on Rock Mountain near Berne along Hwy 2 east of Stevens Pass that released Jan 6th or 7th. Photo: Josh Hirshberg 1/7/20
Many small storm slabs released in the Crystal backcountry 1/6-1/7. Pinwheels in the photo suggest loose wet avalanche activity occurred when temperatures rose above freezing and snow turned to rain.
Another active and colder weather pattern is on it’s way. Enjoy yourself out there and be sure to check the forecast before heading out. Remember, NWAC is a community-supported avalanche center and when you submit an observation you make the forecast better!
It’s getting deeper! Photo: Jeremy Allyn
Valid until: Jan 16th, 2020 10:00AM