Avalanche Forecast

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

The East-South zone appears to have picked up about 6-8 inches of very light, dry snow Sunday night and Monday with an additional 2-3 inches or more Monday night into Tuesday morning. The most recent snow fell with light winds, and is consequently generally unconsolidated and may be poorly bonded to the old snow surface. Cold temperatures and clear skies, should keep the snow cold and dry on any slope not receiving direct sunshine. If the sun comes out, expect Loose Wet avalanches on Wednesday, while on shaded aspects you may trigger a fast-moving loose dry avalanche. Either could knock you off your feet or push you into terrain that may endanger you. The new snow will be easily transported near ridges by most recent NE-E winds and may have formed wind slabs on more a-typical slopes.

Prior to this storm system, observations from along the Tieton River Road showed no signs of recent avalanche activity in any visible terrain. The snowpack below 4000' on sunny aspects is very shallow or non-existent. Even at higher elevations and on shaded aspects, the snowpack appears relatively shallow.

A weak snowpack exists in the eastern portion of the East Slopes Central forecast zone. A similar shallow and weak snowpack may exist in isolated areas of the East Slopes South zone.

Forecast Schedule and No Rating

At this time, we do not have enough specific snowpack information to issue an avalanche hazard rating for the East Slopes South zone. However, even when No Rating is applied, applicable avalanche conditions and backcountry travel advice will be provided throughout the season. When weather systems produce very dangerous avalanche conditions in adjacent zones, NWAC will issue an avalanche warning for this zone as well.

February 5, 2019

The active weather pattern this past weekend brought most areas a shot of new snow. Sadly, it seems like areas close to Seattle may have gotten more snow than the mountains. As a result, we are generally finding lower avalanche danger in most of our forecast zones. The general exception to this rule is the mountains closest to the Canadian border. The Baker area received 4” of water since January 31st. Here are a few general trends we see at this point.

The surface is where it’s at:

A combination of high elevation rains in January, a week of warm high pressure, and minimal new snow loads allowed most of our snowpacks to gain strength. In many locations, we are finding that proverbial Cascade “brick.” It’s not that you can’t find any weak snow in the mid- and lower snowpacks, but as a general rule, the snowpacks in our forecast regions are strong. Consequently, most unstable snow will be limited to the snow surface and the last interface buried in the most recent storm. For example, this week observers are primarily tracking the snow surface and the interface buried on February 1st or 3rd, depending on your location.

Very strong surface snow. This crust was buried in most locations Feb 1 or 3. Photo: Chip Daly

How can you use this? Keep your eyes open as you travel and look for areas that appear different. Why are they different? Could this be a rogue wind slab? Is the sun affecting the snow in this location more than other areas? Is the snowpack thinner and weaker in this area? When you find unique areas, it may be worth giving them a wide berth.

Still watching the far-east:

There is a lingering exception… areas east of highway 97 and east-slopes nearer to the Columbia River. As you travel further east in our forecast area, the snowpack gets thinner, weaker, and more variable. So, why are we seeing the avalanche danger go down in these locations? In general, there just isn’t a substantial slab over the buried weak layers. Two things could change that. 1. A wind event. One quick way to get a slab is to build one with some dry snow and moderate winds. That’s why we have wind affected areas on our mind when we travel to areas with thinner snowpacks. 2. A big storm. While areas like the Wenatchee mountains have seen their fair share of snow this season, these areas haven’t seen a big loading event. How would this weak snowpack handle a big storm? It’s hard to say at the moment. Just remember, if you go to mountainous areas around Twisp, the Wenatchee Mountains, or the East-South zone, you may encounter snowpacks with lingering persistent weak layers.

A shovel tilt test highlights weak snow interfaces in a very shallow east-side snowpack. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

The danger is real:

Even though the snowpack is strong and the avalanche hazard is generally low, there are other risks in the mountains that may pose a very real danger to backcountry travelers. The one we keep hearing the most about is very firm and slick surfaces. You are most likely to find icy surfaces in locations that did not receive much snow during this recent storm. When conditions are like this, it’s tough to gain traction, and any slip may result in a long uncontrolled fall.

Icy snow surfaces have been making travel conditions difficult, and sometimes dangerous. This firm, slick layer is buried below the most recent snow in many locations. Photo: Dallas Glass

What’s next?:

Given the strength of the snowpack, it will likely take a larger storm to ramp the avalanche danger back up. When will that storm arrive? We’ll keep watching the weather patterns and let you know. Make sure to check the latest weather and avalanche forecast before you head into the mountains.

-NWAC team