Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2018 10:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

While wind slabs will continue to stabilize, recent cool weather may cause this process to take longer than usual. Keep an eye out for signs of recently wind transported snow.

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Mostly cloudy and mild weather on Tuesday will continue to allow wind slabs to gain strength. Expect colder temperatures and valley clouds to limit warming at lower elevations.

Look for areas of recently wind transported snow such as uneven snow surfaces, fresh cornices and snow drifts. Identify and avoid areas of wind loaded snow. Recent strong winds may have loaded slopes well below ridge crest. Pay attention to exposed terrain features even below tree line where wind slabs may have formed.

Wind slabs can be deceptively difficult to manage in the terrain. Take a moment and read our recent blog post by NWAC Pro Observer Jeremy Allyn on wind slabs.

Cornices along ridge crest have grown larger especially at higher elevations. Remember to give these features a wide berth. Cornices can break much farther back from the ridge than expected.

Despite recent snow, early season conditions still exist. Pay particular attention to open creeks that have not filled in for the season.

Snowpack Discussion

Happy New Year from your friends at the Northwest Avalanche Center.

Cool weather east of the Cascades has slowed the stabilization of wind and storm slabs formed during the recent active weather pattern. However, on Monday warmer air finally worked it's way aloft with higher elevation stations such as Lyman Lake, Mission Ridge and Dirty Face warming well above freezing while lower elevations stayed in the freezer (see graph below).

 

Winds over the past several days formed firm and initially reactive wind slabs on a variety of aspects.

Storm totals from across the area show 1 - 2 feet of snow (highest storm totals Lake Wentachee and Holden) fell during the series of storms ending Saturday. Layers within the storm snow have been reported from around the area, but trends continue to show these layers slowly gaining strength.

Snowdepth decreases substantially the further east of the Cascade crest one travels. In many areas below treeline, there is not enough snow to present an avalanche danger. 

Observations

North

North Cascade Mountain Guides were in the Washington Pass area Friday through Sunday. By Sunday, sensitive storm slab layers and avalanches seen Friday were gaining strength and becoming unlikely to trigger.  Wind slabs were thought to be stubborn but were still avoided or approached cautiously above treeline. One natural cornice release was observed on Sunday. 

Central

Mission Ridge Pro Patrol reported very sensitive wind slabs observed around the area Saturday. A natural avalanche cycle was observed from Friday night. Avalanche control work within the ski area Saturday produces 1-4 ft wind slab avalanches. The larger avalanches released to ground on 1 mm basal facets, representing a potential local persistent slab problem in the Mission Ridge area that will need to be watched. 

On Friday, a public skier triggered a 16-18” wind slab in closed terrain of Mission Ridge Ski area on a NE aspect at approximately 6000’. The skier was not caught nor injured.

South

No recent observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2018 10:00AM