Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 6th, 2015 10:30AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Loose Wet and Persistent Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Expect increasing avalanche danger with elevation on Saturday... with the likelihood of wet loose avalanches decreasing and new storm and wind slab avalanches increasing. 

Summary

Detailed Forecast

The next system in our active weather pattern should bring on average a half inch or less of water to the east slopes Saturday during the daylight hours as a weather system lifts northward.    

Lowering snow levels and generally light precipitation Saturday should build shallow new storm and wind slab above about 5000 feet or so. Storm related avalanche concerns will increase with elevation Saturday.  Wind slab is most likely on NW through SE aspects near and above treeline in the northeast Cascades but will not be listed as one of the top 3 avalanche problems for that zone. 

It is unknown how well storm snow received Thursday and Thursday night has bonded to the underlying crust or old snow surface in the northeast and central east Cascades near the crest... and a potential storm slab triggered in this zone could step down to this interface.

The below treeline snowpack should continue to drain and be capable of handling additional light rain without a significant increase in avalanche danger. Small wet loose avalanches may still be possible on steeper slopes below treeline in certain areas. 

Remember, due to the unseasonably low snowpack especially at lower elevations, numerous terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation are widespread.  

Snowpack Discussion

Periods of light snowfall were this week east of the crest with more snowfall at higher elevations in the northeast and central east zones. Steady but generally light precipitation was seen during the day Thursday with a gradual warming trend that continued into Friday. The snow level hung around 5500 feet in the northeast Cascades for most of Thursday night with snowfall accumulation likely in the 6-10 inch range in the Washington Pass area before likely mixing with light rain Friday. Much less new snow was reported in the Stuart range and Mission Ridge area above 6500 feet Friday.   

NWAC pro-obs and North Cascade Guides reports last week in the northeast and central east zones have the January 15th facet/crust layers at 40 cm-1 m below the surface with the facets starting to turn to rounded grains and not reactive or not releasing in pit tests. So the January 15th facet/crust layers appear to be strengthening and stabilizing by late January. This problem has been removed from the central east zone but retained in the northeast zone until more information becomes available following this storm cycle.

Other private groups in the Washington Pass area on February 2 and 3 report some upside down densities in the recent snow from earlier in the week and natural and ski cut loose dry avalanches. 

Jeff Ward was in the Stuart Range Friday and found small but sensitive loose wet avalanches naturally and skier triggered above about 6500 ft. Below this elevation, there was not enough new snow for wet loose danger and the most recent crust had not significantly softened. In the area he traveled, the rest of the pack was consolidated and the Jan 15th layer was non-reactive in snowpit tests.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.

 

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

 

This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.

Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Feb 7th, 2015 10:30AM