Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 11th, 2018 12:02PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Dangerous avalanche conditions will persist on Friday. Time and patience is required to let recent storm snow instabilities heal. Recent and fresh wind slab, potentially deep, will exist near and above treeline and may build onto open slopes below treeline. Loose wet avalanches are possible below treeline. All types of avalanches may become large by entraining recent storm snow. Travel conservatively Friday and avoid consequential terrain. 

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Snow levels should eventually rise to around 4000-4500 feet later Thursday night and Friday across the east slopes of the Cascades. Light to occasionally moderate showers seen through Friday morning should taper down quickly in the afternoon. Moderate post-frontal W-SW winds should taper down by Friday afternoon but continue to transport new and recent snow onto lee slopes near and above treeline. 

Dangerous avalanche conditions will persist on Friday. Time and patience is required to let recent storm snow instabilities heal. Recent and fresh wind slab, potentially deep, will exist near and above treeline and may build onto open slopes below treeline. Loose wet avalanches are possible below treeline. All types of avalanches may become large by entraining recent storm snow. Travel conservatively Friday and avoid consequential terrain. 

Despite the recent snow, early season hazards still exist. Many creek beds have still not filled in for the winter.

Snowpack Discussion

A strong storm system Wednesday night and Thursday generally brought 8"-14" of new snow to the east slopes of the Cascades with the lower amounts at Mission Ridge and Mazama, and the higher amounts at Holden, Lake Wentachee, Tumwater and with 20" at Berne through 6 pm Thursday. Moderate westerly winds persisted through the storm in the Mission Ridge area. Storm snow piled up quickly and many areas likely experienced natural storm slab avalanches primarily releasing within the new storm snow. Closer to the Cascade crest, natural avalanche cycles were observed at both Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. 

This system follows on the heels of several inches of snow received Tuesday night/Wednesday near the Cascade crest. Moderate westerly winds late Tuesday through Wednesday re-distributed snow below treeline and exposed areas and particularly near and above treeline. In the central-east zone downwind of Stevens Pass, it exposed the most recent crust in some locations or formed pockets of wind slab nearby.

The supportive 1/5 crust formed from a widespread freezing rain event in the central-east zone, extending to the Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass areas. In the northeast Cascades stretching from Washington Pass to Holden, no freezing rain crust exists.

Snowdepth still decreases substantially the further east of the Cascade crest one travels. In many areas below treeline, there has not been enough snow to present an avalanche danger but Thursday's storm may have expanded potential avalanche terrain to lower elevations.  

Observations

North

No recent observations

Central

Older but still relevant observations:

A public observation from 1/5 in the Mission Ridge backcountry noted a 1/4" thick freezing rain crust up to 5000'. 

Basal facets (2-3mm) observed on 1/2 above 5000' on NW-N-E aspects and failing in snowpit tests in the Blewett Pass area (and likely the Mission Ridge area) will need to be watched when enough snow returns to this area to create a potential avalanche problem.  

South

No recent observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Jan 12th, 2018 12:02PM