Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 4th, 2015 9:35AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday and travel in avalanche terrain near and above treeline is not recommended. 

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Precipitation should increase Sunday night and continue to be moderate through Monday morning before quickly tapering down by mid-day. A strong warming trend will ensue Sunday night and into Monday as well. Snow should change to rain Sunday night and reach into the alpine for the central and southeast Cascades. Snowfall density will increase in the northeast Cascades overnight.  Strong westerly transport winds are expected at Cascade crest level.   

New loading should test persistent weak layers along the east slopes, especially near Mission Ridge where PWLs have proven to be very sensitive to human triggering earlier this week. They will not need much new loading to become active. Persistent slab avalanches are the most difficult to predict and at this time we recommend avoiding avalanche terrain until these layers are reassessed after the storm.  

New storm and wind slab will develop especially in the northeast Cascades near Washington Pass where snow should hang on through early Monday morning and precipitation will be the heaviest. A natural avalanche cycle is likely Sunday night and Monday morning.  

 

Snowpack Discussion

On Sunday light snow accumulated during the afternoon.  Temperatures are expected to rise Sunday evening eventually leading to inverted new snow layering.  

Besides the expected storm snow instabilities, direct-action avalanches may step down to a variety of older snow surfaces or buried weak layers along the east slopes. 

Regarding the persisent weak layers (PWLs) along the east slopes, on Wednesday at Dirty Face Peak above Lake Wenatchee, NWAC observer Tom Curtis found well developed depth hoar over a crust buried 95 cm below the surface around 6000 ft. This was producing very easy, sudden planar test results. Human triggering may be difficult due to a strong 40-50 cm slab above the PWL.  A larger load, like a snowmobile, would be more likely to affect this layer.  

A pair of skiers reported a remotely triggered persistent slab avalanche in Clara Lake Basin near Mission Ridge on Wednesday. This was on a south slope at 6500 feet due to the facets on the crust at 1 meter below the surface. See the full report via NWAC Recent Observations or on Turns All Year.

Remotely triggered persistent slab avalanche in Clara Lake Basin Wednesday by Jamie Tackman. 

The Mission Ridge avalanche photo above is bigger than it looks with debris chunks the size of refrigerators at the bottom. At this time we believe the persistent weak layer is more dangerous in the central east Cascade zone due to the greater ease of human triggering. Mission Ridge pro-patrol had a similar size release on the same layer occur inbounds on Thursday in the near treeline band on a southerly aspect. Highlighting the wide variability along the east slopes. observer reports on Sunday in the Blewett Pass area found too little snow for avalanche concerns. There has not been any recent activity in the Washington Pass zone of avalanches releasing down to PWLs. After this weekend's storm, the persistent slab avalanche problem will be removed from the northeast Cascades zone if found to be nonreactive.   

No recent information is available from the southeast Cascade zone, so travelers are urged to use caution and make conservative decisions in case similar conditions are found there.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.

 

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

 

This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.

Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Jan 5th, 2015 9:35AM