Avalanche Forecast

Generally light snowfall amounts are expected Thursday night and Friday. However, winds should increase and back to SE Friday morning and then to ENE Friday afternoon, potentially creating shallow new wind slab and loading westerly aspects mainly near and above treeline.  

Currently there is not enough new snow forecast to increase the avalanche risk at below treeline or in wind sheltered areas. If the forecast goes awry, make sure to change your travel plans accordingly. 

Due to the low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation. Many areas below treeline do not have enough snow (new or existing) to pose an avalanche hazard. 

Since the mild and wet start to February, fair weather through mid-February has led to generally thick surface crusts, as well as further deterioration of the snow cover below treeline especially further from the crest.

A few weak weather disturbances passed through under NW flow aloft last week, bringing an inch or two of new snow near and above treeline and near the Cascade crest. Winds veered to the east or northeast on Saturday, causing shallow new wind slab formation on non-traditional westerly to more southerly aspects primarily above treeline.  

Observations in the Rainy Pass area over the weekend noted shallow wind slabs of 15-25 cm (6-10 inch) forming on SE-S-SW facing slopes, with cracking but no releases observed. With mild daytime temperatures earlier this week, these isolated slabs have likely further stabilized. 

Significant surface hoar growth was observed in the Washington Pass area Wednesday, even on solar aspects. We'll see if we receive any new snow for this to become a future problem. 

While the January 15th facet/crust layers can still be identified in parts of the NE Cascades, this persistent weak layer has been stabilizing and become unlikely to trigger. As a result the Persistent Slab problem has been removed from the northeast zone.