Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 22nd, 2015 10:00AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wet Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

The avalanche danger should greatly increase east of the crest starting Friday afternoon.

Summary

Detailed Forecast

West flow and an atmospheric river (aka the Pineapple Express) of warm front moisture will begin moving over the upper ridge and to the Northwest on Friday. Rain or snow should become moderate to heavy mainly in the Olympics and north to central Cascades by Friday afternoon and continue Friday night with rising snow levels.

In all areas east of the crest loose wet and and wet slab avalanches will be listed as avalanche problems on Friday. East of the crest these problems should be more likely in areas with the most recent snowfall and expected greater rainfall on Friday which is the Northeast and Central East zones. But loose wet or wet slab avalanches should be seen in all areas east of the crest.

Often loose wet avalanches occur just prior to wet slab avalanches. Avoid steep slopes if you are in increasing heavy rain and start to see wet snow deeper than a few inches or increasing natural pinwheels or rollerballs. The avalanche danger should continue to increase Friday night.

A persistent slab problem will also be forecast for the Northeast and Central East zone on Friday. There is less certainty about this problem but it should get a good test via rain and warming on Friday and if this layer is human triggered it is likely to have greater consequences due to size and propagation.

There is some uncertainty in this forecast. If the heaviest rain occurs Friday night then the greater avalanche danger may also occur Friday night.

 

Snowpack Discussion

Snow on the back end of the last storm Sunday and Monday was mostly in the 6-24 inch range east of the crest. Snow was most significant in the northeast Cascades with about 12-24 inches at Holden and Washington Pass through Monday morning. 

NWAC pro-observer Jeff Ward was at Washington Pass on Wednesday. He reported whumping and sudden collapse and sudden planar tests in up to 10 mm buried surface hoar on the 15 January crust at 60 cm below the surface. He also noted a previous natural shooting crack that had propagated about 1/2 mile. This report is similar to a report from 2 days earlier.

A person reporting via the NWAC Recent Observations page reported an extensive natural storm slab cycle in the Cutthroat area likely from early this week.

We have no new information about the non-reactive PWL in the Jove Peak area from last week, but following this storm cycle it is likely more than 1 meter down and even harder for a human to trigger. 

An avalanche class near Mission Ridge on Saturday reported via the NWAC Recent Observations page that facets between crust layers in the mid pack gave a Q1 shear but did not show a tendency to propagate via an ECT.

A weak dissipating front is moving across the Olympics and Cascades on Thursday. Snow and rain amounts are expected to be light and not have a great effect on snow conditions.

 

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Wet Slabs

An icon showing Wet Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slab avalanches can be very destructive.

 

Avoid terrain where and when you suspect Wet Slab avalanche activity. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty

 

A Wet Slab avalanche. In this avalanche, the meltwater pooled above a dusty layer of snow. Note all the smaller wet loose avalanches to either side.

Wet slabs occur when there is liquid water in the snowpack, and can release during the first few days of a warming period. Travel early in the day and avoiding avalanche paths when you see pinwheels, roller balls, loose wet avalanches, and during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.

 

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

 

This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.

Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 23rd, 2015 10:00AM