Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2016 10:38AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Storm Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected along the east slopes Sunday. Stay conservative with your terrain choices on Sunday with the notion that human triggered avalanches are likely. 

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Due to the high likelihood of human triggering and a variety of avalanche problems expected, dangerous avalanche conditions are forecast along the east slopes of the Cascades Sunday, so stay conservative with your terrain selection. 

Another front will bring more light to moderate rain and snow to the east slopes of the Cascades Sunday, beginning in most areas by mid-morning and turning to light to moderate showers in the afternoon. 

This snow will load the January 3rd and January 11th persistent weak layers were they exist along the Cascade east slopes. This could produce natural or human triggered avalanches that could be remotely triggered, propagate around terrain features and bury, injure or kill.

New wind slab will continue to build mainly on lee northwest to east slopes near and above treeline but should be more varied aspects near the Cascade passes. As the same lee aspects continue to load Sunday, larger avalanches will become possible. 

New storm slab is also likely on varied aspects where winds are lighter and snow rapidly accumulates to deeper than a few inches Avalanches releasing in near surface layers on Sunday may entrain previous snow producing large avalanches.

Snowpack Discussion

Deep storm snow that fell during mid-late December is well settled, homogeneous and has stabilized so the current avalanche danger focus will be on the upper snowpack. Fair weather over the New Year caused extensive surface hoar and near surface faceted snow. This was buried by about light to moderate snowfall along the east slopes from about January 3rd-6th. Another fair weather period was seen from about January 7-10th. Surface hoar and near surface faceted snow formed again in many areas during this period. 

The latest report via the North Cascades Guides is from Delancey Ridge on Wednesday where easily triggered wind slab of about 20-25 cm was seen on north and south slopes at about 6000 feet which was releasing on a persistent crust layer buried on January 11th. A 20-25 cm storm slab was also remotely triggered on a south slope at about 5000 feet which released either a persistent crust buried on January 11th or on persistent buried surface hoar from January 3rd. Natural avalanches were also heard in the area.

A couple reports are available for Thursday via the NWAC Observations page. Skiers triggered 10 inch slabs on a crust which may be a persistent layer on north slopes at 6000 feet Silver Star Mountain. Snow pits near Leavenworth had a easy to spot persistent buried surface hoar layer at 35-40 cm from the surface.

On Saturday Mission Ridge pro-patrol found easy 6-8" ski cuts on lee aspects near and above treeline involving new storm snow.  It is thought that the buried surface hoar previously found in the Mission Ridge backcountry on northerly aspects was likely thoroughly tested earlier in the week and no longer a widespread issue in this specific area. 

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.

 

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

 

This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.

Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2016 10:38AM