Avalanche Forecast

A weak dissipating front should move through an upper ridge and across the Northwest on Thursday. This should cause some light snow in areas east of the crest with a minor drop in snow levels.

This weather should have limited effects on snow conditions.

Mainly watch for lingering areas of firmer wind transported snow and wind slab on previous lee slopes from the back end of the storm early this week.

New snow amounts should be limited on Thursday and any new wind slab should be unlikely, shallow and small if any.

Loose wet avalanches will not be indicated due to the cloud cover and cooling. Storm slab will also not be listed due to the expected limited amounts of new snow. 

In the Washington Pass area lingering wind slabs releasing down a the January 5th crust/facet interface deserves attention. Watch for cracking and collapsing while traveling as obvious instability clues and generally be conservative near avalanche terrain. There's plenty of good skiing to be found on lower angled slopes even in the alpine. The northeast zone will have a higher danger rating than the other zones east of the crest.

As a general backcountry travel safety note, tread carefully at lower elevations and on wind scoured aspects where terrain hazards (exposed rocks, trees, streams, etc.) are present. 

Strong southwest flow carried a wet front across the Cascades Saturday night. This front tapped subtropical moisture but cold air trapped on the east side caused water amounts through Monday morning of .5-2 inches to fall mainly as snow. Snow was most significant in the northeast Cascades with about 12-24 inches at Holden and Washington Pass through Monday morning. 

The North Cascade Mountain Guides in the Washington Pass Monday reported storm slab and collapsing down 55-70 cm in 2-3 mm facets on the January 5th crust. This layer was reactive in snowpit tests with extended column tests indicating propagation and one natural R2D2 avalanche in the Cutthroat Drainage that may have released down to this layer.

Storm slab was reported in the Stevens Pass area Monday and this avalanche problem likely extended into the neighboring area along the east slopes.

We have no new information about the non-reactive PWL in the Jove Peak area from last week, but following this storm cycle it is likely more than 1 meter down and even harder for a human to trigger. 

An avalanche class near Mission Ridge on Saturday reported via the NWAC Observations that facets between crust layers in the mid pack gave a Q1 shear but did not show a tendency to propagate via an ECT. The Mission Ridge ski patrol Sunday reported a surface rain crust with no natural or ski cut avalanches.

Some sun with mild temperatures is being seen east of the crest on Wednesday. Small loose wet avalanches might be possible on steep solar slopes.

The south-east Cascades away from the crest will likely have a lower avalanche danger.   

The overall snowpack remains well below normal for this time of year and some windward or southerly aspects have little if any snow cover.