Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 10th, 2015 11:00AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Wet and Storm Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Keep your terrain selection conservative Saturday: Human triggered slides are likely on wind loaded aspects near and above tree-line, which also happens to be the elevation bands with solid snowcover. Shower intensity and sunbreaks will locally mix in loose wet and storm slab avalanche potential. Choose more moderate and less wind affected terrain and safely enjoy a taste of winter. 

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Cool mid-April storms in a snow starved season can be a recipe for accidents: Enjoy a taste of winter Saturday but keep your terrain selection conservative. Human triggered avalanches are likely on wind loaded aspects near and above tree-line. Shower intensity and sunbreaks will locally mix in shallow loose wet and storm slab avalanche potential.  

A vigorous frontal system passing through Friday night will bring a sharp drop in snow levels by early Saturday morning.  Light and scattered post frontal showers Saturday morning should become more widespread in the afternoon. The heaviest showers are likely near the crest and downwind of a Puget Sound convergence zone. 

Despite the strong cooling trend that will help shallow new storm snow bond well to Friday night's snowfall, moderate and consistent westerly transport winds will continue to load lee aspects near and above treeline throughout the day.

Even with the winter-like temperatures, mid-April sunbreaks in the late morning or mid-day can trigger loose wet avalanches involving the new storm snow on solar aspects.  

Cornices won't be highlighted as an avalanche problem due to the cool weather but use caution on slopes below cornices and on ridges where it can be hard to know if a large cornice is present.

Snowpack Discussion

A broad upper trough moved over the Northwest last weekend through early this week causing periods of very light snow east of the crest at low snow levels. On Wednesday and Thursday, clear skies transitioned to scattered afternoon showers with light new snow accumulations. 

Reports via TAY and from NWAC observer Jeremy Allyn around Washington Pass last weekend indicate shallow powder over crusts on north slopes, corn snow and crusts on solar slopes and no signs of instability. Greater recent storm snow was being preserved west of Rainy Pass, where about 10 inches of unconsolidated powder was seen on shaded terrain at higher elevations, providing a bit of welcome powder skiing!

Snowdepths vary greatly across the east slopes with a regionally healthy snowpack in the northeast Cascades to bare solar and lower elevation slopes in the central and southeast Cascades. Many areas at lower elevations and further away from the Cascade crest do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Apr 11th, 2015 11:00AM