Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 12th, 2018 10:28AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Wet and Storm Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Mild weather will continue to allow wind and storm slabs to gain strength Saturday. This process takes time. Keep an eye on changing weather conditions and their impacts on the surface snow. Be ready to adjust travel according to a developing loose wet avalanche problem as skies clear and the sun comes out.

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Precipitation will taper off Friday night and Saturday morning.  Mild weather Saturday will continue to allow weaklayers in the snowpack to gain strength. This takes time.

Wind slabs are expected to linger near and above treeline. Looks for and avoid areas where winds have recently deposited snow such as fresh cornices and wind drifts.

Storm slab avalanches observed over the past few days have failed within the recent storm snow. As these layers gain strength they will become less likely to trigger, but if they fail they could propagate widely across terrain.

Warm air temps and clearing skies will allow moist to wet surface snow to develop of sunny slopes. Watch for changes in the weather and anticipate surface snow changes. This is most likely in the southern end of the forecast area, but could occur in any region.

Despite the recent snow, early season hazards still exist. Many creek beds have still not filled in for the winter.

Snowpack Discussion

A mild day with some light showers seen mainly near the Cascade crest on Friday continued to allow wind and storm slabs weaknesses to heal.

This week’s storms brought 8-14 inches of snow to the east slopes of the Cascades. Snow piled up quickly in many areas. This likely resulted in a natural avalanche cycle releasing within the new snow. Winds throughout the stormy periods redistributed snow, forming wind slabs on a variety of aspects especially in exposed terrain.

The supportive 1/5 crust formed from a widespread freezing rain event in the central-east zone, extending to the Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass areas. This layer is not present in the northeast from Washington Pass to Holden.

Snowdepth still decreases substantially the further east of the Cascade crest one travels. In many areas below treeline, there has not been enough snow to present an avalanche danger but Thursday's storm may have expanded potential avalanche terrain to lower elevations.

Observations

North

Guides from both North Cascades Mountain Guides and North Cascades Heli were in the field Friday. Observations suggest storm snow weaknesses are gaining strength. Very light snow showers and overcast skies allowed cold surface snow to remain on nearly all slopes. Also on Friday, NCH observed evidence of a widespread natural storm and wind slab avalanche that had occurred Thursday or Thursday night.  

Central

Mission Ridge Pro Patrol Friday reported upside-down new storm snow. Avalanches observed failed within the storm snow.

Older but still relevant observations:

A public observation from 1/5 in the Mission Ridge backcountry noted a 1/4" thick freezing rain crust up to 5000'. 

Basal facets (2-3mm) observed on 1/2 above 5000' on NW-N-E aspects and failing in snowpit tests in the Blewett Pass area (and likely the Mission Ridge area) will need to be watched when enough snow returns to this area to create a potential avalanche problem.  A more recent observation of the basal facets in this area can be found here.

South

No recent observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Jan 13th, 2018 10:28AM