Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2020 5:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Stay warm, navigate around wind slabs, and be cautious of steep open slopes around treeline.

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 5-10 cm of low density snow, strong wind from the south, alpine temperatures around -25 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with light flurries, moderate to strong wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -18 C.

FRIDAY: Light flurries with mix of sun and cloud, light wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -15 C.

SATURDAY: Light flurries with up to 5 cm of snow, moderate wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -12 C.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity has quieted down over past few days, but incoming weather on Thursday will refresh the wind slab problem. Last weekend there were notable signs of a reactive persistent slab problem including large whumpfs and a large snowmobile triggered avalanche in the neighbouring Clemina area (see the MIN report). The surface hoar layer responsible for this problem has been harder to find since then, but could still potentially produce large avalanches in certain sheltered slopes around treeline and could perhaps re-activate with a sudden change in weather.

Snowpack Summary

Surface conditions are variable due to cold temperatures and shifting wind directions over the past few days. The main concern over the past week has been a layer of surface hoar buried 60-120 cm beneath the surface, but recent observations suggest this layer has trended towards being less reactive under the current conditions.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Likelihood

Possible-Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Moderate flurries and strong southwest wind will form fresh wind slabs in open terrain on Thursday, especially near ridgetops.

Aspects:

North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations:

Alpine, Treeline.

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

Likelihood

Unlikely-Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

A layer of surface hoar buried 60-120 cm below the surface could still be reactive to human triggering in clearings around treeline.

Aspects:

All aspects.

Elevations:

Treeline, Below Treeline.

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2020 5:00PM