Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 9th, 2017 4:29PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Persistent Slabs.

mgrist, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Seek the shade for the best and safest riding.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

We'll see little change in the weather pattern: valley cloud and cool temperatures down low but sunny and warm up high. SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Light to moderate south-west winds. Freezing level near 1500 m.MONDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Light southerly wind. Freezing level near 1500m with an above freezing layer at 3000 m. Alpine high temperatures near +3.TUESDAY: Sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon. Light wind. Freezing level near 2000 m with a colder air layer in the valleys.

Avalanche Summary

Some small loose natural avalanches were reported on Wednesday in the south of the region with the start of the warming. Overall, we have very limited data. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Daytime warming is melting upper snowpack layers, particularly on steep sunny slopes. Warming also has the potential to wake up more deeply buried weak layers which formed during November's rainfall. We have limited information about the nature of these buried crusts, but tests in the south of the region suggest they are bonding reasonably well there.Below treeline, the snowpack is shallow--look out for early season hazards like open creeks and tree stumps.

Problems

Loose Wet

Warming temperatures at alpine and treeline elevations is expected to trigger avalanches on steep, sunny slopes.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Warming could wake up deeply buried weak layers. Limited field information is increasing our uncertainty, so a conservative approach makes sense.

Minimize exposure to steep slopes on warm or sunny days.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Dec 10th, 2017 2:00PM