Avalanche forecast

Bitterroot

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Wet snow avalanches are likely at middle and upper elevations today. Watch for signs of instability, like rollerballs, point releases, or recent avalanches. If you see these or are sinking into mushy, wet snow, it is time to exit avalanche terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Warm temperatures and a mix of sun and clouds will continue to warm the snowpack today. Wet loose avalanches are likely on all aspects at middle and upper elevations. They will generally remain small and unlikely to bury you, but even small avalanches can have serious consequences. In isolated, bigger avalanche terrain, wet loose avalanches could grow large enough to bury you. Be wary of terrain traps and hazards that increase the consequences of an avalanche. 

    Snow surfaces in some areas likely refroze last night, but some middle elevations did not. Wet snow will be possible first thing in the morning, so do not let your guard down as you approach your objective for the day. With a mix of sun and clouds in the forecast, both sunshine and greenhousing from clouds could contribute to warming today. If you find yourself moving through mushy, wet, or unsupportable snow, or see rollerballs or small wet loose avalanches, it is time to stay out of avalanche terrain. 

    While low elevations will also be warm, there is generally not enough snow to create large avalanches, so the danger is low. Increasing winds in the afternoon could help limit the extent of warming, especially at upper elevations.

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures will be even warmer in the mountains today than the last few days. Upper elevation temperatures are forecast to rise into the low to mid 40s, and middle elevation temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 40s. If the sun and warm temperatures can overcome the increasing winds, the wet avalanche problem is likely to creep into upper elevations today. 

A small storm will impact the region this evening into tomorrow. We can expect 2-4 inches of new snow in the mountains, with snow levels decreasing to around 4000 ft by tomorrow morning. Small fresh wind slabs could develop overnight. 

While there is generally not enough new snow on top of the buried surface hoar to create a persistent slab problem, observations have shown that across all forecast zones, the surface hoar that formed during January is preserved and buried under 2-6 inches of snow. We will continue to monitor this layer as snow accumulates, but as of now, we are expecting this layer to stick around and a tricky persistent slab problem to develop in the future. As you travel around the mountains, dig in the snow and keep track of where you are finding buried surface hoar. If we develop a slab on top of this, we will all need to change our mindset from low danger to conservative travel and more dangerous avalanche conditions. If you find yourself somewhere with more than around 6 inches of recent snowfall, stay heads up for avalanches failing on the weak old snow surface. Tonight’s snowfall could help tip the scales, especially if the storm overproduces. Take a look at the Flathead Avalanche Center's Swan Range forecast to get an idea of how quickly conditions can become sensitive. 

Glide cracks have opened up on isolated slopes throughout the region. Glide avalanches are highly unpredictable, and avoidance is the answer. If you see open glide cracks, do not travel underneath them. 

You could find isolated lingering small wind slabs at upper elevations today. While these slabs are unlikely to bury you, they could take you for a ride that results in injury or broken equipment. Look out for signs of instability like shooting cracks. The Seeley Lake area has received more snow than other zones in the last few days, so wind slabs are more likely and could be larger there. 

We received our vehicle support from the Forest Service this week and plan to begin fieldwork and forecasting for the Seeley Lake area next week. If you are in the Seeley area on Wednesday (February 4th), we will be doing an Avalanche Awareness class/ Meet the Forecasters hosted by Montana Scenic Trails. Reach out to Montana Scenic Trails for more information or to register. 

Avalanche education is a lifelong journey built on developing sound judgment, gaining experience, and applying repeatable decision-making systems in the backcountry. Our American Avalanche Association (A3) recognized Level 1, Rescue, and Level 2 courses are offered throughout the winter and help you travel smarter in avalanche terrain. Explore current courses and registration on the Education page. 

Please continue to submit observations, and ski and ride safe!

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