Turnagain Pass and Girdwood Avalanche Forecast

Human-triggered avalanches up to 1' deep may be found in areas where the recent storm snow buried isolated pockets of weak, faceted snow. Because this setup is difficult to assess and has limited distribution, it'll be important to identify specific features of concern before committing to steep slopes. In general, this problem is more likely to be found in steep, rocky terrain where the snowpack is shallower. However, recent observations from Notch Mountain in Girdwood indicate a more widespread distribution in the Winner Creek drainage. You can reduce your risk today by avoiding complex or extreme terrain and exposing only one person at a time while skiing or snowmachining in avalanche terrain. Watch for lingering wind slabs and small dry loose slides as additional concerns.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Join CNFAC for the annual Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day this Saturday, March 14, from 12–4 PM at the motorized lot. In addition to free burgers and hot dogs, you can run rescue drills, chat with forecasters, and demo sleds with AMDS and Anchorage Yamaha/ Polaris. Meet the forecasters and partners from the Alaska Avalanche School, Anchorage Nordic Ski Patrol, and Alaska Search and Rescue Dogs. Come refresh your skills, talk snowpack, and eat a hot dog or three!

Recent Avalanches: There was a skier-triggered avalanche on Captain's Chair on Tuesday, in the Lynx Creek drainage in addition to a report of multiple natural avalanches in the Notch Mountain area, Girdwood Valley yesterday. These avalanches released on a layer of facets underneath the most recent storm snow about 1' deep. This is consistent with two other avalanches reported on Notch Mountain over the weekend.

Given the amount of user traffic across the advisory area and where we've seen avalanches this past week, we suspect that areas in the Girdwood Valley (Notch Mountain) and the southern end of Turnagain Pass (Lynx Creek) harbor a snowpack that is more prone to persistent slab avalanches.

Skiers and snowmachiners have been out in force since the most recent snowfall deposited 12-16" of low-density snow across the advisory area, laying down hundreds to thousands of tracks. For the most part, avalanche activity has been minimal, but a skier-triggered avalanche on Tuesday was a good reminder that isolated terrain still harbors near-surface facets beneath last weekend's new snow. Most of the surfaces last week (pre-storm) were blown down to stiff, supportable wind-board. There are, however, 'puddles' of facets that are acting as a weak layer and can still produce large enough avalanches to bury or injure a person. It's impossible to suss out exactly where this persistent slab avalanche problem lies until a skier or rider triggers an avalanche, since our typical red flags (shooting cracks, whumpfing, etc.) are unlikely to be present. If you're choosing to recreate in steep terrain today, consider the consequences if a slope does slide and avoid terrain traps such as skiing or riding above cliffs, or thick stands of alder to minimize your risk.

Wind slabs: Last weekend's storm finished cold, leaving very dry, low-density snow available to be blown into wind slabs. This means it doesn't take strong winds to build wind slabs up to 1' deep, particularly in the upper elevations along ridgelines and convex terrain features. Unlike the persistent problem above, wind slabs are easier to identify. Look for shooting cracks or a sharp change in density at the snow surface.

Dry Loose: For skiers, dry, loose (sluffs) avalanches are also likely as cold, clear temps and a lack of wind continue to facet out the surface. These shouldn't be large enough to bury a person, but may be fast-running and need to be 'managed' to avoid getting knocked off your feet in steep terrain today.

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Avalanche danger

Highlights

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs

Regions covered