Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

11,000ft temperatures have remained above freezing since Tuesday! Large wet avalanches have released naturally, and remain sensitive to human triggering on some slopes. These conditions require careful terrain selection and good timing to avoid getting caught in one of these powerful avalanches. There will be a brief period of better stability this morning, where the upper snowpack remains frozen, before the danger rises back to Considerable as daytime warming increases the threat of continued avalanche activity.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches have occurred daily. These avalanches are the most concerning, where you sink deeply into wet snow. In these areas, a small wet loose avalanche can gouge through the whole snowpack, becoming powerful and large. In some cases, small wet loose avalanches also trigger bigger wet slab avalanches as they run downslope. Reduce your exposure to this avalanche problem by traveling early in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw. 

    A wet loose avalanche initiating from a thin rocky area in the Happy Chutes on Mt Emmons. 

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent wet slab avalanche activity has most often been triggered by smaller wet loose avalanches releasing higher up on the slope. These avalanches can also be human-triggered. The heavy weight of the wet snow will make skiing out of, or exiting the avalanche, nearly impossible. The most concerning terrain for this avalanche problem is where previously dry snowpacks are transitioning to wet conditions this week—especially in steeper, rockier slopes. Many south-facing slopes have already made this transition, while high-elevation northerly aspects are unlikely to produce enough meltwater today.  Wet avalanches are less likely early in the day while the snow surface remains frozen and meltwater production is limited. The hazard increases as the snowpack warms and free water moves deeper into the snowpack.

    In this avalanche, a wet loose avalanche released from a rock outcrop, and triggered the wider propagating wet slab as it descended the terrain. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Old, hard slabs 2 to 3+ feet thick overlie buried weak layers. This avalanche problem has become isolated in distribution and is difficult to trigger. Without obvious warning signs, avalanches are most likely triggered where the slab is thinner and easier to impact the weak layer below.  Cornice falls can also act as triggers. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep terrain with a thin or variable snowpack, such as rocky areas, rollovers, or places where wind has created uneven slab thickness. The southern half of the compass and slopes with consistently deep and uniform snow depths offer safer options.

    The last persistent slab avalanche in our forecast area released on Mt Whetstone, around March 11th, during an extreme wind event.

Avalanche Discussion

On Friday, we observed the greatest number of natural avalanches occurring. These three observations (1, 2, 3) capture what we have documented on that day. On Saturday, observed natural avalanche activity decreased. Click here, and you can see the total avalanche activity for the last week. We will probably continue to see a downturn in avalanche activity on Sunday and Monday with slightly cooler temperatures, and more slopes now getting through their initial hot weather shock. There has been very limited recreational traffic in the backcountry due to the conditions, so human-triggered avalanches haven't been a factor. 

This winter has delevered multiple uncommon forecast challenges, such as the mid-winter rain events. Now we are in another uncommon forecast challenge that forecasters have little experience with. High-temperature records have occurred daily this past week; Schofield Pass hit 60 degrees on Friday, for example. We are now into the 6th day, with 11,000ft temperatures remaining above freezing. There is a small chance that low temperatures could drop below freezing tonight, otherwise we have to look towards late next week for the next chance of below freezing temperatures at the 11,000ft example. Typically, these weather conditions don't occur for another month or more. The snowpack will not stay unstable and dangerous forever. The snowpack is being forced through a rapid and abrupt spring transition. The snowpack structure will eventually change to spring and summer conditions that better tolerate the heat. The exact timing for dropping danger ratings will be harder for us to call. A good signal would be a continued downturn in natural avalanches today, similar to Saturday. 

You can read the latest weekly summary here, or watch the video recap here. 

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