Southeast Mountains

Avalanche conditions remain tricky, with signs of instability like cracking and collapsing becoming infrequent, but the consequences of a triggered avalanche remain severe. The worst snowpacks can be found in the northern half of the compass and in some high-elevation southerly terrain.  The unpredictable nature and dangerous size of avalanches can be managed through conservative terrain selection.  Stick to mellower slope angles without steep terrain directly above.  Mid and low-elevation southerly slopes offer notably less slab avalanche risk and could provide soft turns.

The avalanche hazard has been on a slow decline since the major loading event around February 18-20th, but conditions remain tricky.  Signs of instability (cracking and collapsing) have become less frequent, particularly in the Northwest Mountains.  However, a trickle of avalanche activity over the past week indicates that trouble waits on some slopes, albeit quietly.  On Thursday, observers remotely triggered an avalanche in West Brush Creek from hundreds of feet away on a northerly slope below treeline.  A group on Leahy Peak, near Aschcroft, remotely triggered a large avalanche on a southeast feature above treeline (This avalanche is outside the CBAC forecast area, but has a very similar snowpack to the Southeast Mountains). Further from the CBAC forecast area, but no less indicative of the hazard locally, a large avalanche was remotely triggered on the north face of Battleship in the northern San Juan Mountains.

The lack of signs of instability makes conditions feel safer than they are.  The dense slabs, around 2 to 3 feet thick, prevent frequent signs of instability, but problematic weak layers persist.  Recent snowpack tests from Elkton and Snodgrass (ob 1, ob 2) illustrate the issue.  Gauging the sensitivity of the problem or identifying where you might find a trigger point is a challenging task, but understanding the severity of an avalanche is not.  A large portion of documented avalanches over the past two weeks are big enough to bury, injure, and kill a person.  Some would have been unsurvivable.   

Rain crusts from last week formed across nearly all slopes in the forecast area.  Observers have noted variable thickness in these crusts.   In some terrain where the crust is thick and supportive to skis/board, there is a lower likelihood of triggering an avalanche.  However, rain amounts varied across the terrain, and it's difficult to apply a clear formula to determine where crusts reduce the odds of human triggered avalanche.  In general, the lowest elevation terrain saw the most significant rain crust formation, and higher elevations often have thinner crusts, but this may not apply to all drainages around Crested Butte.

Warm temperatures have softened snow surfaces on southerly aspects at mid and low elevations.  Cloud cover may limit warming on Monday, but temperatures should climb high enough to soften some sunny terrain.  Soft turns and quality riding conditions are hard to find on the northside of the compass due to the rain event on Wednesday, 2/25.  You can steer clear of the poor riding conditions and increased avalanche hazard by sniffing out soft turns on southerly aspects at lower elevations out of the wind.