Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is Low at the mid and upper elevations. It is very unlikely but not impossible to trigger an avalanche. Extreme terrain or areas near cliffs or rock bands could be the exception where buried weak layers may be easier to trigger.  Low elevations lack sufficient snow depths for avalanche concerns. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Weak snow formed during a dry period in November lies buried one to three feet below the surface of the snowpack. Conditions have evolved to a point that triggering a slab avalanche involving this layer is very unlikely. If venturing into very steep terrain, digging or probing  in the snowpack may help to determine if that area remains susceptible to failure. Sticking to low to mid-angle slopes is the easiest way to avoid any lingering hazard. 

    (12/21/2023)

    Here is a good example of the terrain where triggering a persistent slab could still be possible.  These frequent fliers ran during the last avalanche cycle that ended around Dec 11th.

    Photo: Alex Drinkard

Avalanche Discussion

Time, settlement, several days with above freezing afternoon temperatures, and the lack of appreciable new snow have lowered the likelihood of triggering an avalanche. Although the weak layer that was responsible for an active avalanche cycle in early December remains well preserved in the snowpack, it is now very unlikely to trigger a slide involving it. The last avalanche reported involving this layer occurred on December 11. The weak snow is still there and can be seen in the many observations and snow pit diagrams submitted here.  Although the weakness is prevalent on many aspects above 8,500', the snowpack is now mostly stable and the chance for avalanche events is limited to isolated terrain features. Many people are stepping out into more consequential terrain but it remains important to keep thinking that the snowpack may be unstable, especially in steep, rocky alpine zones. It is hard to prove without a doubt that the slope you are considering is entirely stable so taking the normal precautions like skiing one at a time, grouping up out of harms way and skiing with a partner are key. Thin spots in variably loaded and rocky, northerly aspects remain on the watch list. 

Dropping the forecast to Low is never an easy decision and rarely gives a forecaster a warm and fuzzy feeling. It's far easier to cover your bases and hedge against the outlier avalanche that takes someone by surprise and possibly ends in tragedy. As a group, forecasters have to avoid this short-term guilt-avoidance behavior in favor of protecting the meaning, and thus the value, of the avalanche danger scale. Sitting at a Moderate  danger rating is the easier thing to do, but in the end, doing so in the current conditions, will water down the meaning of the danger scale. We have to count on the public to understand fully the logic and meaning of the rating scale and approach avalanche terrain accordingly, especially during periods of Low danger.

The longer the current dry period goes on, the more the current snow surfaces will weaken. Crusts will continue to harden on south facing terrain, while near surface faceting continues on other aspects. Surface hoar can be found in many areas and at varying elevations. The best skiing and riding is currently found on these faceted surfaces in sheltered, shady areas. 

Regions covered