Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist as 2 feet of snow has fallen and heavy snowfall is expected to continue today. You can trigger an avalanche in the new snow whether that's a storm slab or loose dry snow avalanche that can run long distances on crusts. Any avalanche triggered on the surface could be dangerous on its own but may step down into deeper buried weak layers. Facets that formed around crusts during the high-pressure periods at the end of February and early March were in the top meter of the snowpack before this latest round of snow. Deeper down in the snowpack, depth hoar and facets near the ground may become more reactive in shallow snowpacks as we've seen with each significant loading event this year.  Avoid slopes over 30 degrees today watching for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and collapsing. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    2 feet of snow fell during the first part of the storm and another foot of snow is forecasted to fall by Tuesday morning.  Strong SW winds accompanied yesterday's portion of the storm with winds diminishing overnight and are expected to remain light throughout the day today. New snow fell on crusts that formed during the warm and dry period that proceeded this storm or near-surface facets on northerly aspects. This will create a good bed surface for avalanches to run long distances on or an easily collapsable weak layer at the new snow/old snow interface.  Yesterday there were periods with graupel and this may be a layer within the new storm snow to trigger an avalanche.  

    You could also trigger a loose dry snow avalanche in more wind-sheltered areas, these loose snow avalanches could run long distances in steep terrain and knock you off your feet potentially burying you in a terrain trap. Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees, which will be difficult as these types of deep conditions tend to lead you into steeper terrain just to make a turn. An avalanche in the new snow could be dangerous on its own, but could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    2 feet of snow and over 2" of SWE have already fallen with another foot of snow forecasted by Tuesday morning.  This rapid loading will stress weak layers buried in the top meter of the snowpack before this last storm. Near-surface facets on shadier aspects and faceted crusts on sunnier aspects that formed during late February and early March dry periods will struggle to handle this rapid loading. Deeper down in the snowpack, depth hoar and the early January drought facet layers have been lying dormant for the last month but continue to remain present and reactive in snowpits where the snowpack was shallow before this latest round of snow.  As snow totals continue to add up, these layers may become more problematic, as we've seen this happen with each significant loading event this season.   

     

    Faceted crusts and buried near surface facets that formed during the dry periods at the end of February and early March will be the persistent weak layers of concern that you could trigger. 

    Photo: Charlie Harrison (3/14/2024)

Avalanche Discussion

It's been an impressive storm so far and we still have another couple of days of snow in the forecast.  Snow totals over the last 30 hours are 2 feet with 2.1 - 2.4" of SWE and it's still dumping early this morning.  The National Weather Service has us under a Winter Storm Warning through today as continued heavy snowfall is expected into the evening with an additional foot of snow forecasted.  Winds yesterday were in the 15 - 30 mph range with gusts in the 50 out of the SW before decreasing overnight.  Today winds are expected to remain light out of the NW as a backdoor cold front from the east moves over the Sangres and creates a convergence zone over the mountains that should produce periods of heavy snowfall throughout the day. 

Avalanche problems in the new snow will be the obvious problem for today. New snow has fallen on crusts that formed during the recent warm period and near surface facets on northerly shady aspects. Yesterday, surface slabs were reactive at upper elevations to ski cuts on the leeward sides of ridgelines as moderate to strong southwest winds were loading slopes. Winds have calmed down in the early morning hours and temperatures this morning are in the single digits and teens.  This storm so far has come in right side up, but temperatures are expected to warm during the day so we could see new storm snow instabilities failing on density changes. Although winds are expected to remain light today, it won't take much of an uptick to easily drift snow into stiffer more cohesive slabs.   

There's less certainty when it comes to our persistent slab problem, faceted crusts and buried near surface facets from our late February and early March dry periods continue to remain in the top meter of the snowpack before this latest round of snow. This is the first significant loading event since these layers formed, and it will be interesting to see how these layers are able to handle this rapid loading.  Thick stout crusts that formed during the warm period before this storm may be able to hold more weight, but if the forecast verifies, we could be pushing close to 3.5" of water which will provide a big test to many slopes. Avalanches may not fail naturally on these layers but may take you triggering it, or a smaller avalanche within the storm snow to get these layers to fail. 

Deeper down in the snowpack depth hoar and basal facets continue to remain present in shallow snowpacks (< 1.5m) and have mostly been lying dormant during the prolonged periods of high pressure.  With each significant storm this year we've seen these layers become more reactive which includes northerly aspects below treeline where the snowpack continues to remain shallow. The last real significant loading event happened at the end of February when we had a large avalanche that failed near the ground, so we'll see if these deeper weak layers become more of a concern as snow totals continue to stack up.

Winter's not done with us yet, but with that will come a rise in avalanche danger as we could see close to 3 feet of snow by the time the storm makes its exit Tuesday evening.  If you are getting out stay safe, and try to fight that urge to chase powder in steeper terrain.  This storm has the potential to be one of the bigger storms of the year. With winds picking up tomorrow, expect dangerous avalanche conditions to stay with us for several days. 

  

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