Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Continued warm weather will make triggering avalanches likely on sunny slopes. Avalanches could be large enough bury a person and will become likely as the day warms. Triggering a very large avalanche on weak snow buried deeply in the snowpack is also possible, particularly during the heat of the day. You'll find better riding and lower avalanche risk on shady slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet snow avalanches are likely in Togwotee today, and the threat of natural, point release avalanches and and larger human-triggered avalanches will increase as temperatures warm.  Avalanches involving surface snow could entrain enough snow to carry a sled and a person and could even trigger a larger slab, especially in previously wind affected areas. Though wet slabs don't seem likely to fail without a trigger today, lingering under steep, sunny or rocky areas wouldn't be a good idea due to the possibility of a larger avalanche releasing naturally due to heat and flowing water. Also, be mindful of cornices today. They may break easier today and could fail on sunny aspects in the heat of the day.

     

     

    (4/1/2024) A large cornice fall on Monday triggered a buried persistent layer and resulted in a slab avalanche large enough to carry and possibly bury a person. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Triggering a persistent slab avalanche is possible on weak snow buried 2-4 feet deep. The weak, sugary snow exists across all elevations and aspects except middle-elevation southerlies. The most probable areas to trigger a persistent slab avalanche include steep, rocky, and wind-affected slopes on the north half of the compass. These areas contain thin, shallow spots where riders can more easily impact weak layers. Shallower snow is also found east of the continental divide and south towards the Gros Ventre Range. Previous tracks on a slope are not an indicator of stability. Use caution in steep terrain and give yourself a wide margin of error on slopes with high consequences or near terrain traps. Move to low-angle terrain to avoid this problem. 

    The last known persistent slab avalanche occurred on 3/16 in Upper Deception Creek. On 3/19, a wet slab avalanche failing on these persistent weak layers occurred on Breccia. More avalanches such as these will likely occur today, and many problems may span the border between a wet slab and a persistent slab problem. However, both will be equally destructive avalanche types.

    (3/28/2024)

    Total snowpack from Jules Bowls. 10,000' on a NE aspect. 125cm total height. The weak snow at the base is clearly visible.

    Photo: Cameron Galt

Avalanche Discussion

Rapid warming is one of the classic red flags of increasing avalanche danger.  Another red flag is a persistent weak layer in the snowpack.  These red flags are so important, we had them printed on the side of our snowmobile trailer. The rapid warming or melting flag should be pretty obvious today but the persistent layer is rarely obvious. Both of these red flags plus previous wind loading make for a colorful day in the backcountry. The good news is that these flags wil unfurl in specific areas, leaving lots of terrain open for recreation with less risk of avalanches. Enjoy the sunny weather and supportable snow on lower angled slopes. Today will be a great day to take in the incredible views found in the Togwotee high country.

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